Gold jumped more than 1 percent on Monday after a rebound above USD 1,400 ignited technical buying, but sentiment was shaky as steady outflows from exchange-traded funds trimmed holdings to their lowest in three years.
The technical outlook for gold, which has plunged more than 15 percent so far this year, is yet to improve although the safe-haven asset could find support from a rush in physical buying in Asia and other parts of the world.
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Gold added USD 13.91 an ounce to USD 1,417.76 by 0212 GMT after rising to as high as USD 1,421, still below Friday’s session-high of around USD 1,424.
Gold posted its biggest-ever daily loss in dollar terms last Monday, shocking veteran investors, who see gold as portfolio protection against inflation and other market risks. Prices sank to around USD 1,321 on April 16, its lowest in more than 2 years.
“The aggressiveness of the fall suggests that we are still in a consolidation rather in a reversal role. For me, the USD 1,435 level is likely to provide resistance,” said Tim Riddell, head of ANZ Global Markets Research, Asia.
“We really need to get back into the USD 1,500s to say that there’s something more substantial taking place. The close above USD 1,400 may have taken the negative pressure out of gold in the near term. A close back below that level will heighten the risks of new lows.”
US gold for June delivery was USD 1,417.60 an ounce, up USD 22.00.
For a 24-hour gold chart analysis: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT1/20132204100219.jpg
Inflation adjusted gold price timeline (since 1970): http://link.reuters.com/jem47t
Gold demand in China: http://link.reuters.com/bat34t
Gold in currencies: http://link.reuters.com/cyv95s
Gold has failed to react to tension in the Korean peninsula, with its safe-haven appeal dented by expectations the US Federal Reserve will soon end its bullion-friendly bond buying programme, which could ease inflationary pressure.
The precious metal had rallied to an 11-month high in October last year after the Fed announced its third round of aggressive economic stimulus, raising fears the central bank’s money-printing to buy assets would stoke inflation.
Outflows on exchange-traded funds could also indicate that investors were parking their money elsewhere, although last week’s trading data from the Unites States showed that funds had injected new money to gold futures.
Hedge funds and money managers raised their net longs in gold futures and options in the week to April 16, a report by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday, as new money entered the market at lower prices.
But holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, dropped 0.88 percent on Friday from Thursday, while those of the largest silver-backed ETF, New York’s iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged for the same period.
Gold prices have also come under pressure due to Cyprus’ plan to sell excess gold reserves to raise around 400 million euros that led to speculation other indebted euro zone countries could follow suit.
In other markets, bulls drove Japanese shares to nearly five-year highs as yen bears clawed at the symbolic 100 yen/dollar door after the Group of 20 gatherings in Washington all but endorsed the Bank of Japan’s aggressive reflation drive.