Archive | June, 2013

China Copper Prices May Witness New Lows in Q4 2013: Barclays

29 Jun

“Our economists have cautioned that implementation of the new government’s agenda of no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform means there is an increasing downside that China could experience a temporary hard landing in the next three years,” the bank noted.

copper updatesLONDON : Copper prices in China may witness new lows in the fourth quarter of this year on rising copper mine supply, recent liquidity tightening and lower base metals consumption, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.

“Our economists have cautioned that implementation of the new government’s agenda of no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform means there is an increasing downside that China could experience a temporary hard landing in the next three years,” the bank noted.

In the first quarter of 2013, world copper consumption is estimated to have declined by around 5.3% compared with that in the same period of 2012, according to International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Chinese apparent demand declined by 10% owing to a 46% decline in net imports of refined copper.

Excluding China, year-on-year world copper usage declined by around 1.7%. On a regional basis, usage is estimated to have declined by 7.8% in Africa, 1.8% in the Americas, 7.6% in Asia, 0.2% in Europe, and 14.3% in Oceania.

World mine production is estimated to have increased by almost 11% in the first three months of 2013 year-on-year basis mainly owing to a recovery in production levels from constrained output in early 2012.

Meanwhile, according to ICSG projections for 2013, the global copper market is expected to have a production surplus relative to demand.

World production of refined copper is expected to exceed demand for refined copper by about 415,000 t, as demand will lag behind the growth in production. For 2014, although a recovery in usage is anticipated, a higher surplus is expected with increased output from new and existing mines.

Freeport McMoRan has restarted open pit production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and the company expects underground mining to resume shortly. Furthermore, the labour contract negotiations have yet to be restarted, a process that poses a further risk of disruptions, according to Barclays view.

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Commodity bets: Sell gold; buy silver & crude

28 Jun

Commodity experts are upbeat on silver and crude, they advise buying them. However, they are not bullish on gold, hence suggest selling it.

Priyank Upadhya of SSJ Finance and Securities suggests buying silver around Rs 39,000 per kilogram with stop loss below Rs 38,500 per kilogram and target around Rs 40,000-40,400 per kilogram.

Hitesh Jain of IIFL advocates selling MCX gold at Rs 25,500 per 10gm with target of Rs 25,000 per 10gm and stop loss of Rs 25,850 per 10gm.

Dipen Shah of Stayvan.com advises buying crude. “Any dips in prices around Rs 5,770 per barrel should be used for buying on MCX with strict stop loss of Rs 5,750 per bbl and expect Rs 5,820 to 5,840 per bbl on the higher side on MCX,” Shah adds.

Shreekanth Jha of PJ Commodity Ventures recommends selling gold at Rs 25,500 per 10gm for an immediate target of Rs 25,000 per 10gm.

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