Archive | June, 2013

China Copper Prices May Witness New Lows in Q4 2013: Barclays

29 Jun

“Our economists have cautioned that implementation of the new government’s agenda of no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform means there is an increasing downside that China could experience a temporary hard landing in the next three years,” the bank noted.

copper updatesLONDON : Copper prices in China may witness new lows in the fourth quarter of this year on rising copper mine supply, recent liquidity tightening and lower base metals consumption, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.

“Our economists have cautioned that implementation of the new government’s agenda of no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform means there is an increasing downside that China could experience a temporary hard landing in the next three years,” the bank noted.

In the first quarter of 2013, world copper consumption is estimated to have declined by around 5.3% compared with that in the same period of 2012, according to International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Chinese apparent demand declined by 10% owing to a 46% decline in net imports of refined copper.

Excluding China, year-on-year world copper usage declined by around 1.7%. On a regional basis, usage is estimated to have declined by 7.8% in Africa, 1.8% in the Americas, 7.6% in Asia, 0.2% in Europe, and 14.3% in Oceania.

World mine production is estimated to have increased by almost 11% in the first three months of 2013 year-on-year basis mainly owing to a recovery in production levels from constrained output in early 2012.

Meanwhile, according to ICSG projections for 2013, the global copper market is expected to have a production surplus relative to demand.

World production of refined copper is expected to exceed demand for refined copper by about 415,000 t, as demand will lag behind the growth in production. For 2014, although a recovery in usage is anticipated, a higher surplus is expected with increased output from new and existing mines.

Freeport McMoRan has restarted open pit production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and the company expects underground mining to resume shortly. Furthermore, the labour contract negotiations have yet to be restarted, a process that poses a further risk of disruptions, according to Barclays view.

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Commodity bets: Sell gold; buy silver & crude

28 Jun

Commodity experts are upbeat on silver and crude, they advise buying them. However, they are not bullish on gold, hence suggest selling it.

Priyank Upadhya of SSJ Finance and Securities suggests buying silver around Rs 39,000 per kilogram with stop loss below Rs 38,500 per kilogram and target around Rs 40,000-40,400 per kilogram.

Hitesh Jain of IIFL advocates selling MCX gold at Rs 25,500 per 10gm with target of Rs 25,000 per 10gm and stop loss of Rs 25,850 per 10gm.

Dipen Shah of Stayvan.com advises buying crude. “Any dips in prices around Rs 5,770 per barrel should be used for buying on MCX with strict stop loss of Rs 5,750 per bbl and expect Rs 5,820 to 5,840 per bbl on the higher side on MCX,” Shah adds.

Shreekanth Jha of PJ Commodity Ventures recommends selling gold at Rs 25,500 per 10gm for an immediate target of Rs 25,000 per 10gm.

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Silver prices rebound on MCX, July futures up 0.3%

27 Jun

Silver prices rebounded with marginal gains Thursday, after previous day’s sharp fall. It fell below Rs 40,000 per kg level in previous session.

At 11:33 hours IST, MCX SILVER July contract was trading at Rs 39681 up Rs 113, or 0.29 percent. The SILVER rate touched an intraday high of Rs 39863 and an intraday low of Rs 39501. So far 5717 contracts have been traded. SILVER prices have moved down Rs 25329, or 38.96 percent in the July series so far.

MCX SILVER September contract was trading at Rs 40042 up Rs 157, or 0.39 percent. The SILVER rate touched an intraday high of Rs 40224 and an intraday low of Rs 39884. So far 1521 contracts have been traded. SILVER prices have moved down Rs 17277, or 30.14 percent in the September series so far.

MCX SILVER December contract was trading at Rs 40939 up Rs 222, or 0.55 percent. The SILVER rate touched an intraday high of Rs 41041 and an intraday low of Rs 40900. So far 10 contracts have been traded. SILVER prices have moved down Rs 6230, or 13.21 percent in the December series so far.

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Gold prices decline; MCX gold August future falls 1.65%

26 Jun

At 11:43 hours IST, MCX GOLD August contract was trading at Rs 26121 per 10 gram, down Rs 438, or 1.65 percent. The GOLD rate touched an intraday high of Rs 26535 and an intraday low of Rs 26026. So far 11057 contracts have been traded. GOLD prices have moved down Rs 6106, or 18.95 percent in the August series so far.

MCX GOLD October contract was trading at Rs 26252 down Rs 443, or 1.66 percent. The GOLD rate touched an intraday high of Rs 26650 and an intraday low of Rs 26158. So far 474 contracts have been traded. GOLD prices have moved down Rs 5598, or 17.58 percent in the October series so far.

MCX GOLD December contract was trading at Rs 26387 down Rs 507, or 1.89 percent. The GOLD rate touched an intraday high of Rs 26459 and an intraday low of Rs 26342. So far 34 contracts have been traded. GOLD prices have moved down Rs 4553, or 14.72 percent in the December series so far.

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Gold inches up as Fed officials downplay stimulus wind-down

25 Jun

Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,283.55 an ounce by 0018 GMT. It fell around 1 percent on Monday

Gold edged higher on Tuesday as the dollar weakened after two top Federal Reserve officials downplayed an imminent end to monetary stimulus.

Bullion is still down more than 7 percent since the start of last week due to worries over an early end to the Fed’s USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases and a cash crunch in China.

 Fundamentals

* Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to USD 1,283.55 an ounce by 0018 GMT. It fell around 1 percent on Monday, extending last week’s 7 percent slide as fears of a cash crunch in China spooked investors, and a slide in US equities prompted bullion selling to cover margin calls.

* Comex gold rose USD 6 to $1,283.10.

* Last Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his most explicit signal yet that the US central bank was considering scaling back its USD 85 billion per month of Treasuries and mortgage-backed debt purchases.

* On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said investors were wrong to view the central bank as having become more keen to tighten policy than it was before last week’s policy meeting.

* Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said even if the bank dialled back stimulus this year, it will still be running an accommodative policy.

* Fears of a credit crunch in China’s banking system eased on Monday as short-term interest rates fell. The central bank said there were sufficient funds in the market but banks needed to improve cash management and control lending.

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*India’s biggest jewellers’ association has asked its members to stop selling gold bars and coins, about 35 percent of their business, adding to government efforts to cut gold imports and stem a swelling current account deficit.

* HSBC lowered its 2013 gold price forecast to USD 1,396 from USD 1,542 an ounce and its 2014 price to USD 1,435 from USD 1,600, mainly on the Fed’s plans to reduce economic stimulus and weak Chinese growth prospects.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.43 percent to 985.73 tonnes on Monday – its lowest in over four years.

Gold prices update: Gold rates in Indian metro cities

24 Jun

At 13:09 hours IST MCX GOLD August contract was trading at Rs 26687 per 10 gram, down Rs 333, or 1.23 percent. The GOLD rate touched an intraday high of Rs 27000 and an intraday low of Rs 26650. So far 16507 contracts have been traded. GOLD prices have moved down Rs 5540, or 17.19 percent in the August series so far.

MCX GOLD October contract was trading at Rs 26824 down Rs 338, or 1.24 percent. The GOLD rate touched an intraday high of Rs 27131 and an intraday low of Rs 26801. So far 487 contracts have been traded. GOLD prices have moved down Rs 5026, or 15.78 percent in the October series so far.

In Chennai, prices of gold 995 and gold 999 fell by Rs 200 each to Rs 27350 and Rs 27460 per 10 gram on Monday.

In Ahmedabad market, the rate of gold 995 declined by 280 to Rs 26,990 and gold 999 slipped by Rs 275 to 27,120 per 10 gram.

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MCX Crude Oil bearish; support 5600 and 5580

22 Jun

For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 5600 while resistance is seen at 5630. If prices break the level of 5600 then prices are expected to move towards 5580. MCX crude oil futures for July delivery was seen trading down by 0.04% at Rs. 5612 per barrel as of 11.56 PM IST on Saturday.

MUMBAI: The trend in crude oil futures for July delivery on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) looks bearish for the day and traders are advised stay at sell side.

“For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 5600 while resistance is seen at 5630. If prices break the level of 5600 then prices are expected to move towards 5580,” said Amrita Mashar, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.

“Traders may take buy position near 5610 with the stop loss of 5630 for the target near 5580,” she added.

MCX crude oil futures for July delivery was seen trading down by 0.04% at Rs. 5612 per barrel as of 11.56 PM IST on Saturday.

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Last week, in the global market, crude oil prices fell to the lowest since September on higher than expected rise in US crude oil inventories, concerns over economic recovery in China and the United States and US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the Central Bank may end its monetary stimulus partially this year and potentially withdrew it by the middle of next year on the assumption that US economy is improving.

WTI crude oil futures for August delivery on NYMEX closed down by 1.32% at $ 93.89 per barrel on Friday.

Brent crude oil futures for August delivery on NYMEX closed down by 1.19% at $100.94 per barrel on Friday.