LONDON : Copper price movement above $7,500/ton is an opportunity to sell the base metal on likely slowing Chinese consumption over the summer alongside further supply increase through second half of the year, stated London base Barclays in a report.
Copper prices are expected to witness a fall in the second quarter of this year on improved supply. The bank favours selling into rally in the base metal.
However, in the short term the commodity’s prices may go up on recent supply disruptions, fall in scrap supply and short positioning as well as seasonal improvement in Chinese demand.
Reports suggest that, the mining activities at Grasberg, world’s second largest copper mine would remain shut till a government enquiry ends on tunnel mishap that killed mine workers. The mine is expected to remain shut for three months, according to the reports.
Closure of mine for three months mean loss of 120 Kt of copper production, the bank said. However, it was subsequently noted by the Indonesian economics minister that the investigation should proceed as quickly as possible, suggesting that the shut-down could be much shorter.
Furthermore, the bank believes that there is probably about one month of inventory held by the mine, which could help to further offset the net production loss. So the potential lost production could range from 40-120Kt.