Archive | July, 2013

What author of Antifragile has not told about Precious Metals

27 Jul

Taleb does not say this in his book, but precious metals are both antifragile and robust or unchangeable in nature. Normally, the price of precious metals would have risen alongside the increase in the money supply.

The concept of antifragility comes from NaseemTaleb’s book Antifragile. In it, he describes things and processes that thrive on mistakes and volatility.

Basically, an antifragilesystem is one where error and/or risk is allowed, encouraged and leads to improvement overall.

Fragile versus robust

A fragile system is one that is artificially controlled, like a modern forest fire, for example. Such control ultimately leaves the system much more vulnerable to disaster.

Another example is the financial system in the age of constant bailouts and too big to fail companies. Add to this the absence of moral hazards, and the resulting extreme misallocation of capital and risk has resulted in apersistent disconnect between price and fundamentals.

On the other hand, a robust system is one that is essentially stable over long periods of time. An example would be the long term purchasing power of precious metals across all paper currencies.

Paper legal tender is fragile

Perhaps the ultimate fragility is an intrinsically worthless paper legal tender maintained by force and the control over the commodity futures markets by allowing sellers to pay for their trading losses in paper instead of real goods.

Paper currencies have value that is only based on debt and a country’s ability and willingness to repay it. Unfortunately, the debt can only be serviced by printing new paper currency, which then results in more debt.

Crises of confidence are the ultimate emotionally driven events, and a severe U.S. Dollar crisis could wipe out an entire investment class practically overnight.

Antifragile applied to precious metals

Taleb does not say this in his book, but precious metals are both antifragile and robust or unchangeable in nature. Normally, the price of precious metals would have risen alongside the increase in the money supply.

Nevertheless, the more intervention occurred, the worse the volatility observed as price swings increased. More volatility increased emotion and investor interest, thereby leading to greater liquidity and ultimately demand.

This is a sign of failure — as quiet desperation protects the fragile U.S. Dollar based fiat currency system.

Furthermore, precious metals are antifragile because market control and mispricing alongside rampant money creation results in bad money chasing out the good, a la Gresham’s law.

The more their prices areartificially suppressed— overtly through propaganda and covertly through price controls — the stronger the case for holding precious metals becomes.

Get sure base metals lead tips by market experts to make good earnings in trading. To get instant gold silver tips free trial register here: www.sharetipsexpert.com

Gold inches up, headed for third weekly gain

26 Jul

Gold edged up on Friday and was headed for its third straight weekly gain, helped by a weaker dollar and hopes of a prolonged period of easy monetary policy.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold had climbed 0.07 percent to USD1,333.95 an ounce by 0014 GMT, after gaining about 1 percent in the previous session.

* US data showed that new claims for jobless benefits edged higher last week, but remained within a range that suggests the labour market’s recovery is on track.

* Investors fear that strong US economic numbers would prompt the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus measures sooner rather than later.

* China’s gold demand could hit a record 1,000 tonnes this year, the World Gold Council said on Thursday, which means it would overtake India as the world’s biggest bullion consumer.

* Gold premiums in India jumped to USD 20 an ounce over London spot prices on Thursday due to short supplies even as traders, looking to stock up for festivals, waited for prices to fall further from their highest level in more than a month.

* Gold mining companies are expected to cut their gold hedging position by 20 tonnes on a net basis in 2013 even though the price of bullion has fallen sharply, precious metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS said on Thursday.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.26 percent to 927.36 tonnes on Thursday.

* Goldcorp Inc , the world’s largest gold miner by market capitalisation, posted weaker-than-expected second quarter results on Thursday, hit by a sharp drop in the gold price and a USD 2 billion non-cash impairment charge.

MARKET NEWS

* The dollar languished at one-month lows against a basket of major currencies on Friday, having suffered a setback overnight as investors turned cautious ahead of next week’s Fed policy meeting.

Traders can subscribe for gold updates by ShareTipsExpert to play well in gold trading. They can make huge profit with best commodity tips in commodity market.

Oil Continues to Fall in Asia

25 Jul

Oil futures traded modestly lower during Thursday’s Asian session, extending losses incurred during U.S. traded Wednesday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for September delivery fell 0.29% to USD105.29 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday despite some encouraging U.S. real estate data.

In U.S. economic news out Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index climbed to 57 this month from 51 last month. The July reading reading is the highest since January 2006. Readings above 50 indicate builders view the market as good.

New home sales advanced 8.3%, the best rate in five years. The seasonally adjusted rate was 497,000 units. Economists expected 484,000. May’s sales rate was also revised up to 459,000.

Even solid weekly inventories could not help oil higher in Asian Thursday. On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels in the week ending July 19, exceeding expectations for a decline of 2.4 million barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 364.2 million barrels as of last week.

Traders appear to still be concerned about economic data out of China last night that serves as further proof manufacturing activity in the world’s second-largest economy is slowing. China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to an 11-month low of 47.7 in July, from a final reading of 48.2 last month. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 48.6.

The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consumers.

Elsewhere, Brent futures for September delivery fell 0.14% to USD106.91 per barrel.

Traders can subscribe for accurate commodity tips by market experts, which offers accurate tips in crude oil, natural gas, mcx gold, silver, zinc trading. To get 100% accurate commodity tips visit us at: sharetipsexpert.com

Perpetual volatility: Will investors abandon Gold?

24 Jul

mcx gold tradingGold futures are weighing and responding in earnest to the Ben Bernanke Congressional testimony of the last week. While the futures look comfortable in dealing with the anticipation that the Fed would not taper as soon as the markets had thought, lending it some buying appetite, the prospect of a tapering lingers with an uneasy calm.

“There’s still a bit of a thirst for the metal,” Jonathan Barratt, chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin said to Bloomberg.

“Given that Bernanke has already suggested that tapering will only occur when they’re very comfortable with the economic outlook, we’re going to see tapering on the agenda but it’s going to be some time before it actually starts,” he added.

Gold on the Comex for delivery on August 13 was seen trading at $1,338.85/oz, a gain of $4.15 or 0.31% as of 10.05 AM IST.

The multi-billion Dollar question used to be this: When will the US Federal Reserve start to taper? After a series of testimonies this year, the answer looks very much elusive. The Fed could not be blamed on this, because they are doing what that is mandated out of them.

The Fed do own the trigger of shooting the Quantitative Easing measures point-blank. Only thing is that they cannot pull it at their will. In fact, having started this whirlpool of money printing, a genie is out, which is refusing to go into the bottle.

The markets have in effect become QE fetish to such an extent that it would be difficult to pull the trigger on QE execution. Playing to the gallery is imperative in a politicized economy.

Now, the mult-billion Dollar question is if the QE measures would be tapered at all? High profile leadership at PIMCO, world’s biggest institution investing in bond markets, believe that the ultra-loose monetary policy may continue until it is 2016.

That is no walking distance from 2013!

The fact remains that gold futures would see extended periods of volatility as data releases occur every time. The Fed has clubbed the QE measures to a recovery in job markets, housing markets and a moderate and healthy inflation. Each data release in this category, fluctuating as each one is, would take the futures on a roller coaster ride.

Traders can subscribe gold trading tips free trial by ShareTipsExpert, with their accurate commodity trading tips traders can make huge profit in commodity market.

Any negative sign is taken for a point to rally up and any positive sign on economy could be interpreted as a point to rally down in gold. Now imagine that happening all the way to 2016! That is a perfect incentive for investors to abandon gold. Especially when there are other less volatile instruments to conduct trade and make money.

But, at some point in time, all these QE measures would have to be curtailed. That would be the time when markets would see the perfect storm.

Gold Eases After 4 Days of Gains as Dollar Firms

24 Jul

Gold slipped on Wednesday after hitting a fresh one-month high the session before as the dollar climbed off lows and investors took profits after four days of gains.

Fundamentals

* Spot gold had dropped 0.3 percent to USD 1,343.56 an ounce by 0022 GMT, after rising to a one-month peak on Tuesday as speculators bought back bearish bets ahead of an option expiry later this week.

* Comex gold gained USD 9 to USD 1,343.40, while silver and platinum tracked gold lower.

* Spot gold has gained over USD 160 an ounce from a three-year low hit in late June after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US central bank would only start phasing out its stimulus when it was sure the economy was strong enough to stand on its own.

* World stock markets rose to near five-year highs on Tuesday, boosted by views that China was moving to support its cooling economy, while the dollar fell to one-month lows.

* The markets is waiting for the latest reading on China’s manufacturing activity due at 0145 GMT for signs of economic growth in the world’s second-biggest bullion consumer.

* Wall Street’s multibillion-dollar commodity trading operations came under the political spotlight on Tuesday as a powerful US Senate committee questioned whether commercial banks should control oil pipelines, power plants and metals warehouses.

Traders can make good profit in commodity market with accurate commodity trading tips by Sharetipsexpert.

Read more: http://bizcovering.com/investing/gold-eases-after-four-days-of-gains-as-dollar-firms/

Gold near one-month high as dollar slips

23 Jul

A weaker dollar supported bullion prices, but stricter Indian import rules and continued outflows from exchange-traded gold funds could cap gains

goldGold was trading near its highest in a month on Tuesday after gaining 3 percent the session before and breaking through key resistance at the USD 1,300 level.

A weaker dollar supported bullion prices, but stricter Indian import rules and continued outflows from exchange-traded gold funds could cap gains.

 FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was down 0.08 percent at USD 1,334.01 an ounce by 0020 GMT, while US gold fell USD 2.50 to USD 1,333.50.

* Gold hit a one-month high of USD 1,338.91 on Monday, as speculators fearing a reversal of the recent downward price trend rushed to buy back bearish bets.

* Bullion prices have garnered support from Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke’s assurance last week that the US central bank would be careful in scaling back its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases.

* September is still the most likely time for the Fed to announce that it will trim its monthly bond purchases, according to a Reuters poll taken after Bernanke’s congressional testimony last week.

* Analysts have slashed their 2013 gold and silver price forecasts after sharp falls earlier this year and expect them to remain weak in 2014 as the United States reins in monetary stimulus, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

* India’s central bank moved to tighten gold imports again on Monday, making them dependent on export volumes with an eye to reducing a record current account deficit, but offered relief to domestic sellers by lifting restrictions on credit deals.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.13 percent to 931.26 tonnes on Monday.

* A group of indigenous Chileans asked the Supreme Court to revoke the environmental license of Barrick Gold Corp’.

Share Tips Expert now offers gold tips free trial for traders, get now and make huge profit in commodity market.

 

Gold rises to 1-month high on weaker US dollar

22 Jul

Gold hit a high of USD 1,314.49 an ounce, its highest since June 20, and stood at USD 1,312.24 by 0024 GMT, up USD 16.50

mcx goldGold jumped more than 1 percent to its highest level in a month on Monday as the US dollar slipped against other currencies, with gains in Japanese bullion futures adding extra support.

Gold hit a high of USD 1,314.49 an ounce, its highest since June 20, and stood at USD 1,312.24 by 0024 GMT, up USD 16.50. Gold last week posted its second weekly gain after the Federal Reserve’s assurance the timing of any tapering in economic stimulus is not set in stone.

US gold rose 1.49 percent to USD 1,312.10 an ounce. The most active June 2014 gold contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange rose as high as 4,243 yen a gramme, its highest since June 20, because of a weaker yen.

Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish bets in gold and silver futures and options in the week to July 16, while they trimmed net shorts in copper, a report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

China’s central bank removed controls on bank lending rates, effective Saturday, in a long-awaited move that signals the new leadership’s determination to carry out market-oriented reforms.

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.29 percent to 932.46 tonnes on Friday from 935.17 tonnes on Thursday.

Get instant gold updates to play well in commodity market, we also offers free mcx tips for traders which help traders to earn good profit in commodity trading.