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Gold near one-month high as dollar slips

23 Jul

A weaker dollar supported bullion prices, but stricter Indian import rules and continued outflows from exchange-traded gold funds could cap gains

goldGold was trading near its highest in a month on Tuesday after gaining 3 percent the session before and breaking through key resistance at the USD 1,300 level.

A weaker dollar supported bullion prices, but stricter Indian import rules and continued outflows from exchange-traded gold funds could cap gains.

 FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was down 0.08 percent at USD 1,334.01 an ounce by 0020 GMT, while US gold fell USD 2.50 to USD 1,333.50.

* Gold hit a one-month high of USD 1,338.91 on Monday, as speculators fearing a reversal of the recent downward price trend rushed to buy back bearish bets.

* Bullion prices have garnered support from Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke’s assurance last week that the US central bank would be careful in scaling back its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases.

* September is still the most likely time for the Fed to announce that it will trim its monthly bond purchases, according to a Reuters poll taken after Bernanke’s congressional testimony last week.

* Analysts have slashed their 2013 gold and silver price forecasts after sharp falls earlier this year and expect them to remain weak in 2014 as the United States reins in monetary stimulus, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

* India’s central bank moved to tighten gold imports again on Monday, making them dependent on export volumes with an eye to reducing a record current account deficit, but offered relief to domestic sellers by lifting restrictions on credit deals.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.13 percent to 931.26 tonnes on Monday.

* A group of indigenous Chileans asked the Supreme Court to revoke the environmental license of Barrick Gold Corp’.

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MCX Gold, MCX Silver to witness short covering this week; MCX Crude Oil, MCX Copper bearish

1 Jul

Gold and silver on India’s Multi Commodities Exchange crashed to lower levels last week. Crude oil gained on high demand from investors while copper was still on the verge of a downfall.MCX Gold, MCX Silver, MCX Crude Oil, MCX Copper

Algorithmic trading with mechanical sell positions promoted steep fall in gold and silver prices. Persisting slow down in Chinese economy and sad state of affairs in European economy ensured the commodities remained in bearish zone. High demand from importers kept crude oil in positive territory.

MCX gold for August delivery may trade sideways to down this week. Short covering is expected at lower levels. Support: 24800, 24000; Resistance: 26300, 27100

MCX Gold traded in the range of 24830-27000 last week. The commodity remained in bearish territory as U.S gold crashed to $1183 per oz.

Release on U.S Nonfarm pay rolls, Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance and Spending may put pressure on gold prices in the global markets.

MCX silver for September delivery may trade bearish this week. Sell on rise is advised to the traders. Support: 39000, 38000; Resistance: 41700, 41999

Last week, MCX silver traded in the range of 38536-41334. The commodity crashed tracking gold prices. COMEX silver also witnessed a bear rally to lower levels.

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Chinese HSBC Services PMI and Euro zone retail sales data is likely to announce this week. Worries over Chinese economy may put pressure on silver prices.

MCX crude oil for July delivery may trade with negative bias this week. Support: 5550, 5310; Resistance: 5850, 5890

MCX crude oil traded in the range of 5570-5867 last week. Depreciation of Indian Rupee to 60.5 levels against dollar capped further fall in crude oil prices.

American Petroleum Institute release on US crude oil and gasoline inventories are scheduled for Wednesday. Weakness in Dollar Index may impact crude oil prices further.

MCX copper for June delivery is expected to trade sideways this week. Support: 398, 389; Resistance: 418,420

MCX copper traded in the range of 406-413 last week. The commodity witnessed low volatility on Chinese outlook.

Indian HSBC Services PMI and U.K Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data are scheduled for the week. Short recovery is expected for copper around 394-392 range.

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Supply disruptions in Copper, Platinum, Crude Oil and Grains possible: Barclays

1 Jun

Though the year so far has seen positive momentum when it comes to supply side of various commodities, Barclays does not expect the same to be the case as we move forward into the second half of the year. This applies to commodities like copper, platinum, crude oil and grains. Approaching the commodities one at a time would give us a better picture.

Copper

Monthly production data of copper from Chile, amongst the world’s biggest producers of copper, says that April saw the commodity declining in production by 1.2% y/y and 9% m/m. This is the first decline registered this year subsequent to an output growth of 7% y/y in Q1.

Platinum

There is an upcoming worker wage negotiation in South Africa with the political party of AMCU attending the talks for the first time. If the talks get protracted or a labour action stems from the same, supply disruptions may get to be the norm.

Crude oil

The Sudanese exports have been resuming slowly even as Yemen’s Marib pipeline has been repaired. But it may not be time for rejoicing as both developments are reversible. Yemen’s pipeline could be attacked yet again by the militants (“the frequency of pipeline attacks in Yemen have not faded and risk remains for a relapse”); nature of relationship between North and South Sudan being volatile, the crude oil flows may not be as reliable.

Besides the domestic conflicts and geopolitical factors are not favorable in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria.

Grains

Rain and wet weather have been playing dampeners as delays surface in US spring plantings of corn and soybeans.

 

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Gold dips for 6th session in longest losing streak in 4 yrs

16 May

Spot gold had dropped 0.3 percent to USD 1,388.15 an ounce by 0033 GMT after hitting its weakest since April 19 at 1,386.89 an ounce.

gold updatesGold fell for a sixth session on Thursday in its longest losing streak since March 2009, after holdings in exchange-traded funds fell to their lowest in four years as rallying stock markets dulled bullion’s safe-haven appeal.

Fundamentals

Spot gold had dropped 0.3 percent to USD 1,388.15 an ounce by 0033 GMT after hitting its weakest since April 19 at 1,386.89 an ounce.

US gold eased 0.64 percent to USD 1,387.30.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.43 percent to 1047.14 tonnes on Wednesday from 1051.65 tonnes on Tuesday, their lowest since March 2009.

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Premiums for physical gold in India, the world’s biggest gold buyer, have jumped sharply this week due to limited supply after the central bank restricted imports to rein in a record current account deficit.

The United States will rigorously enforce “without fear or fail” sanctions starting on July 1 that ban governments or private companies from selling gold to Iran, a top Treasury official said on Wednesday.

Market news

Asian shares got off to a positive start on Thursday after data showed Japan’s economy accelerated in the first three months of the year.

The euro declined to its lowest level against the dollar in six weeks on Wednesday.

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