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Gold near one-month high as dollar slips

23 Jul

A weaker dollar supported bullion prices, but stricter Indian import rules and continued outflows from exchange-traded gold funds could cap gains

goldGold was trading near its highest in a month on Tuesday after gaining 3 percent the session before and breaking through key resistance at the USD 1,300 level.

A weaker dollar supported bullion prices, but stricter Indian import rules and continued outflows from exchange-traded gold funds could cap gains.

 FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was down 0.08 percent at USD 1,334.01 an ounce by 0020 GMT, while US gold fell USD 2.50 to USD 1,333.50.

* Gold hit a one-month high of USD 1,338.91 on Monday, as speculators fearing a reversal of the recent downward price trend rushed to buy back bearish bets.

* Bullion prices have garnered support from Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke’s assurance last week that the US central bank would be careful in scaling back its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases.

* September is still the most likely time for the Fed to announce that it will trim its monthly bond purchases, according to a Reuters poll taken after Bernanke’s congressional testimony last week.

* Analysts have slashed their 2013 gold and silver price forecasts after sharp falls earlier this year and expect them to remain weak in 2014 as the United States reins in monetary stimulus, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

* India’s central bank moved to tighten gold imports again on Monday, making them dependent on export volumes with an eye to reducing a record current account deficit, but offered relief to domestic sellers by lifting restrictions on credit deals.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.13 percent to 931.26 tonnes on Monday.

* A group of indigenous Chileans asked the Supreme Court to revoke the environmental license of Barrick Gold Corp’.

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MCX Gold, MCX Silver to witness short covering this week; MCX Crude Oil, MCX Copper bearish

1 Jul

Gold and silver on India’s Multi Commodities Exchange crashed to lower levels last week. Crude oil gained on high demand from investors while copper was still on the verge of a downfall.MCX Gold, MCX Silver, MCX Crude Oil, MCX Copper

Algorithmic trading with mechanical sell positions promoted steep fall in gold and silver prices. Persisting slow down in Chinese economy and sad state of affairs in European economy ensured the commodities remained in bearish zone. High demand from importers kept crude oil in positive territory.

MCX gold for August delivery may trade sideways to down this week. Short covering is expected at lower levels. Support: 24800, 24000; Resistance: 26300, 27100

MCX Gold traded in the range of 24830-27000 last week. The commodity remained in bearish territory as U.S gold crashed to $1183 per oz.

Release on U.S Nonfarm pay rolls, Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance and Spending may put pressure on gold prices in the global markets.

MCX silver for September delivery may trade bearish this week. Sell on rise is advised to the traders. Support: 39000, 38000; Resistance: 41700, 41999

Last week, MCX silver traded in the range of 38536-41334. The commodity crashed tracking gold prices. COMEX silver also witnessed a bear rally to lower levels.

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Chinese HSBC Services PMI and Euro zone retail sales data is likely to announce this week. Worries over Chinese economy may put pressure on silver prices.

MCX crude oil for July delivery may trade with negative bias this week. Support: 5550, 5310; Resistance: 5850, 5890

MCX crude oil traded in the range of 5570-5867 last week. Depreciation of Indian Rupee to 60.5 levels against dollar capped further fall in crude oil prices.

American Petroleum Institute release on US crude oil and gasoline inventories are scheduled for Wednesday. Weakness in Dollar Index may impact crude oil prices further.

MCX copper for June delivery is expected to trade sideways this week. Support: 398, 389; Resistance: 418,420

MCX copper traded in the range of 406-413 last week. The commodity witnessed low volatility on Chinese outlook.

Indian HSBC Services PMI and U.K Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data are scheduled for the week. Short recovery is expected for copper around 394-392 range.

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