Tag Archives: Commodity Trading

History Shows Gold Could Fall Another $500/oz

16 Jul

A slowdown in growth in China, as evidenced in data released on Monday which showed that growth had slowed to 7.5 percent, was one potential indicator of lower gold demand.

gold updatesThe price of gold could fall below USD 800 an ounce over a long-term horizon, a drop of some USD 500 from its current level of USD 1,294 an ounce, Duke University’s Campbell Harvey told CNBC on Monday.

Harvey, who works at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, said that over 2,500 years of history, the real price of gold (the nominal price adjusted for inflation) had remained roughly the same.

Also read : checkmatetrades

“Right now we’re way above the mean,” Harvey said, suggesting that the price of gold would correct over the long-term to approximately USD 800 an ounce.

“If you look historically, it doesn’t just go down to the average and stay there. It actually goes through and falls below, then comes back up,” he said.

The price of gold could therefore potentially go even lower than USD 800, he said. “It has been lower in recent history.”

“It might not be tomorrow,” Campbell added, but “the cycles go in 10-15 years, and we’re well into one of these cycles.”

He said investors mulling the price of gold should focus on demand rather than supply, which he said was “amazingly constant”.

A slowdown in growth in China, as evidenced in data released on Monday which showed that growth had slowed to 7.5 percent, was one potential indicator of lower gold demand.

“China is a demander of gold, lower growth there means lower demand,” Campbell said.

Traders should get gold updates by market expert to play well in commodity market and earn better. sharetipsexpert.com offers free gold updates and tips for traders, register now to get free gold trading tips and updates.

India Coal regulator to bring relief to industries: India Ratings

10 Jul

Ind-Ra also expects it to establish yardsticks to determine quality or grades of coal supplies, ensure adherence to supply contracts, adjudicate on disputes between suppliers and consumers and oversee the progress of mining rights/licenses granted to private companies. Allocation of fresh coal mines will, however, continue to be the prerogative of the GoI.

MUMBAI : Government of India’s (GoI) recent decision to constitute an independent regulatory authority for the coal sector is a vital step for its much-needed overhaul. It can potentially bring considerable relief to industries which depend on coal as a critical input, most notably the beleaguered power sector, said India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) in its recent release.

Notwithstanding the reportedly large coal reserves in India, the sector is characterised by acute shortages, poor quality, inefficient mining practices and distorted pricing mechanisms.

These factors have had a crippling effect on power generation, a vital component of scaling up the country’s undernourished infrastructure sector. Many of these issues have been ascribed to the virtual monopoly enjoyed by the state-owned Coal India Limited.

It is yet unclear if price setting would also be included within the ambit of the proposed regulator. However, the proposed regulator is likely to determine the principles on the basis of which producers can price coal.

Ind-Ra also expects it to establish yardsticks to determine quality or grades of coal supplies, ensure adherence to supply contracts, adjudicate on disputes between suppliers and consumers and oversee the progress of mining rights/licenses granted to private companies. Allocation of fresh coal mines will, however, continue to be the prerogative of the GoI.

Although GoI’s recent announcement has brought in considerable optimism, Ind-Ra believes the mere constitution of a regulator in itself cannot act as a panacea for all the problems facing the sector.

The mandate given to the regulator and the resources provided to it for effective discharge of its duties in an independent and transparent manner, free from political interference, would be vital to realise GoI’s objectives.

Concurrently, other reform measures such as restructuring Coal India and significantly expanding private sector’s participation in coal mining would also need immediate attention.

The regulator is proposed to be set up through an executive fiat, demonstrating GoI’s urgency to address the problems plaguing the coal and power sectors.

This is another milestone in the GoI’s reforms agenda that it has been pursuing fairly systematically in the last 12 months or so to fix many of the ills plaguing the stressed infrastructure sector.

Parliament would need to pass a legislation constituting the authority and thereby ratifying the Government action – a bill to this effect is likely to be introduced in the ensuing session.

Earlier this year, a Group of Ministers had approved this proposal and recommended a revised draft bill for consideration of the Cabinet.

For instant free commodity trading tips register here : sharetipsexpert.com

Oil edges down to $103/bbl, supply worry eases

9 Jul

NYMEX crude for August delivery was down 16 cents at USD 102.98 a barrel by 0018 GMT, after settling down 8 cents at USD 103.14 on Monday. It touched a 14-month high of USD 104.12 on Monday.

crude oil tips

Click on Image to get 100% sure crude oil tips now!

US crude futures retreated to just below USD 103 a barrel on Tuesday, pressured by the return of a Libyan oilfield and Iraqi pipeline that eased concerns about global oil supplies.

Also Read : checkmatetrades

Fundamentals

NYMEX crude for August delivery was down 16 cents at USD 102.98 a barrel by 0018 GMT, after settling down 8 cents at USD 103.14 on Monday. It touched a 14-month high of USD 104.12 on Monday.

London Brent crude for August delivery was down 34 cents at USD 107.09 a barrel, after settling down 29 cents.

Libya’s major Sharara oilfield will resume operations after an agreement was reached with the armed group that shut it down last month, a senior Libyan oil source said on Monday.

A pipeline from Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan will also resume operations in two to three days following an interruption caused by a leak, two sources in Iraq’s state-run North Oil Company (NOC) said on Monday.

Clashes in Egypt that left at least 51 people dead heightened geopolitical risk, but there has been no impact to ports and shipping through the Suez Canal.

Egypt will hold new parliamentary elections once amendments to its suspended constitution are approved in a referendum, the interim head of state decreed on Monday, setting out a time frame that could see a legislative vote in about six months.

US commercial crude oil stocks likely fell by 3.3 million barrels last week, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. Distillate stocks likely rose by 1.3 million barrels, while gasoline stocks were seen up 1.2 million barrels.

Market News

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.53 percent on Monday, edging closer to its all-time high set in May.

The dollar paused in its rally as investors bought beaten-down currencies such as the Australian dollar on Tuesday, although its broad uptrend is seen intact as the market tries to position for when the US Federal Reserve will start to slow its stimulus.

Checkout commodity sources

China Copper Prices May Witness New Lows in Q4 2013: Barclays

29 Jun

“Our economists have cautioned that implementation of the new government’s agenda of no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform means there is an increasing downside that China could experience a temporary hard landing in the next three years,” the bank noted.

copper updatesLONDON : Copper prices in China may witness new lows in the fourth quarter of this year on rising copper mine supply, recent liquidity tightening and lower base metals consumption, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.

“Our economists have cautioned that implementation of the new government’s agenda of no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform means there is an increasing downside that China could experience a temporary hard landing in the next three years,” the bank noted.

In the first quarter of 2013, world copper consumption is estimated to have declined by around 5.3% compared with that in the same period of 2012, according to International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Chinese apparent demand declined by 10% owing to a 46% decline in net imports of refined copper.

Excluding China, year-on-year world copper usage declined by around 1.7%. On a regional basis, usage is estimated to have declined by 7.8% in Africa, 1.8% in the Americas, 7.6% in Asia, 0.2% in Europe, and 14.3% in Oceania.

World mine production is estimated to have increased by almost 11% in the first three months of 2013 year-on-year basis mainly owing to a recovery in production levels from constrained output in early 2012.

Meanwhile, according to ICSG projections for 2013, the global copper market is expected to have a production surplus relative to demand.

World production of refined copper is expected to exceed demand for refined copper by about 415,000 t, as demand will lag behind the growth in production. For 2014, although a recovery in usage is anticipated, a higher surplus is expected with increased output from new and existing mines.

Freeport McMoRan has restarted open pit production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and the company expects underground mining to resume shortly. Furthermore, the labour contract negotiations have yet to be restarted, a process that poses a further risk of disruptions, according to Barclays view.

Traders can play well in copper trading with copper updates which help traders to get better idea to trade in copper. Get accurate free intraday trading tips by sharetipsexpert.com to make huge profit in commodities.

MCX Crude Oil bearish; support 5600 and 5580

22 Jun

For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 5600 while resistance is seen at 5630. If prices break the level of 5600 then prices are expected to move towards 5580. MCX crude oil futures for July delivery was seen trading down by 0.04% at Rs. 5612 per barrel as of 11.56 PM IST on Saturday.

MUMBAI: The trend in crude oil futures for July delivery on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) looks bearish for the day and traders are advised stay at sell side.

“For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 5600 while resistance is seen at 5630. If prices break the level of 5600 then prices are expected to move towards 5580,” said Amrita Mashar, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.

“Traders may take buy position near 5610 with the stop loss of 5630 for the target near 5580,” she added.

MCX crude oil futures for July delivery was seen trading down by 0.04% at Rs. 5612 per barrel as of 11.56 PM IST on Saturday.

With accurate mcx crude tips traders can make valuable profit in mcx crude trading, Sharetipsexpert offers accurate mcx crude tips for traders which help traders to get good profit in commodity trading.

Last week, in the global market, crude oil prices fell to the lowest since September on higher than expected rise in US crude oil inventories, concerns over economic recovery in China and the United States and US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the Central Bank may end its monetary stimulus partially this year and potentially withdrew it by the middle of next year on the assumption that US economy is improving.

WTI crude oil futures for August delivery on NYMEX closed down by 1.32% at $ 93.89 per barrel on Friday.

Brent crude oil futures for August delivery on NYMEX closed down by 1.19% at $100.94 per barrel on Friday.

Gold tumbles again, could see worst week in 30 years

21 Jun

Gold fell to a three-year low on Friday and was in danger of recording its biggest weekly drop in 30 years after the US Federal Reserve said it would wind down its bullion-friendly stimulus later this year.

Spot gold – down nearly 9 percent this week – dropped for the fifth straight session, while Comex gold futures also declined over 1 percent to their lowest in three years.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the central bank would taper its USD 85 billion monthly bond buying programme as the US economy was recovering strongly, ending purchases around mid-2014 if economic growth held up.

“What the market is undergoing now is a state of normalisation, going back to pre-stimulus times,” said Joyce Liu, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

“Since the first stimulus programme in 2009, markets have jumped despite fundamentals not justifying such a spike.”

Gold was also hurt by CME Group Inc’s move to raise initial margins for Comex gold after prices plunged over 6 percent on Thursday.

The exchange operator raised Comex 100 Gold Futures initial margins for speculators by 25 percent to USD 8,800 per contract from USD 7,040.

“That is definitely affecting gold too. For those who cannot put out margin calls on time, they will be squeezed out even when they don’t want to get out,” said Liu.

Until recently, gold – seen as a hedge against inflation – had gained as the global economy took a hit and central banks acted to boost their economies. Gold touched an all-time high of USD 1,920.30 in 2011.

Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at USD 1,271.16 an ounce by 0121 GMT on Friday. The metal fell to USD 1,269.04 earlier – its lowest since September 2010 and a level which would mark the worst weekly decline in 30 years.

It has lost 24 percent of its value this year, after recording 12 years of gains.

Gold is on weak technical ground and will fall below USD 1,200 an ounce before finding support, technical analysts said.

UBS lowered its 2013 gold price outlook by 10 percent to USD 1,440 an ounce, and its 2014 forecast to USD 1,325 an ounce from USD 1,625.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.42 percent to 995.35 tonnes on Thursday – the lowest in more than four years.

But the drop in prices could see a spurt in physical demand in top consumers India and China, which have been quiet recently.

However, Liu said the demand would not be as strong as April when gold prices fell the most in 30 years over just two days.

With accurate gold updates and tips by ShareTipsExpert help traders to play well in commodity market and get valuable returns! To get good profit in commodity trading try now gold trading tips and updates by www.sharetipsexpert.com

China tight manufacturing, interest rates drag Copper down

20 Jun

Rise in interbank rates in Chinese markets to 12% gives out the impression that China is hitting on momentum brakes and provides for assumptions that the economy there is undergoing a deliberate slow down.

MUMBAI: With Chinese manufacturing shrinking at enhanced speed this month as reflected in HSBC-Markit PMI readings, questions are raised on the future prospects of copper.

The PMI reading came at 48.3 well below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction; of course, below-50 readings are indicative of contraction in the economy.

This, coupled with rise in interbank rates in Chinese markets to 12% gives out the impression that China is hitting on momentum brakes and provides for assumptions that the economy there is undergoing a deliberate slow down.

Traders can subscribe mcx copper tips to make good profit in commodity market. ShareTipsExpert India’s No 1 Advisory Firm offers best mcx copper tips for traders which help traders to earn good profit.

The rates climbed as the central bank of China “refrained from using reverse-repurchase agreements to inject cash into the financial system,” as per Bloomberg.

“If market rates remain at such high levels, the only scenario for the Chinese economy is a hard landing,” said Xu Gao, chief economist with Everbright Securities Co. in Beijing to Bloomberg.

“That possibility is growing now — it seems the leadership is deliberately taking a wait-and-see stance to see how low China growth can be,” he noted.

Meanwhile, Barclays in a report said that, “copper dominated by construction and infrastructure spending may be seeing a shift to permanently slower demand growth.”

“Sentiment among traders in China has shifted from short-term bullish to cautious on copper. On the one hand, refined supply remains tight in China due to smelter maintenance and scrap shortage, and physical premiums remained at elevated for domestic spot market and bonded warehouse stocks. On the other hand, LME prices fell sharply on bearish macro developments and failed to rally on supply disruptions which is viewed as a negative for future price action,” Barclays report added.

On the Comex, copper for delivery on July 13 was seen trading at $3.098 a pound, a loss of $0.041 or 1.31% as of 10.33 AM IST.

On the MCX, copper for delivery on June was seen trading down by 0.12% at Rs.407.85 as of 10.33AM IST.