Tag Archives: Copper

Commodity bets: Buy crude, copper & gold; sell lead

17 Jun

Renisha Chainani of Edelweiss suggests buying crude at Rs 5,600 per bbl with stop loss of Rs 5,550 per bbl and targets at Rs 5,670 per bbl and Rs 5,680 per bbl on higher side.

Sugandha Sachdeva of Religare Commodities advises buying copper at Rs 406 per kilogram, keeping stop loss at Rs 403 per kilogram and prices likely to edge higher at Rs 415 per kilogram.

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities advocates buying gold at Rs 27,700 per 10gm maintaining stop loss at Rs 27,500 per 10gm and hold for target of Rs 28,250 to Rs 28,350 per 10gm.

Sumeet Bagadia of Destimoney Commodities recommends selling lead. “Rise in prices till Rs 121 or Rs 122 per kilogram in MCX should be used as selling opportunity with stop loss to be placed at Rs 124 per kilogram on higher side for initial target of Rs 119 per kilogram and prices are able to break and give close below Rs 119 per kilogram then further selloff can be seen till Rs 117 per kilogram in two-three days,” Bagadia adds.

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Supply disruptions in Copper, Platinum, Crude Oil and Grains possible: Barclays

1 Jun

Though the year so far has seen positive momentum when it comes to supply side of various commodities, Barclays does not expect the same to be the case as we move forward into the second half of the year. This applies to commodities like copper, platinum, crude oil and grains. Approaching the commodities one at a time would give us a better picture.

Copper

Monthly production data of copper from Chile, amongst the world’s biggest producers of copper, says that April saw the commodity declining in production by 1.2% y/y and 9% m/m. This is the first decline registered this year subsequent to an output growth of 7% y/y in Q1.

Platinum

There is an upcoming worker wage negotiation in South Africa with the political party of AMCU attending the talks for the first time. If the talks get protracted or a labour action stems from the same, supply disruptions may get to be the norm.

Crude oil

The Sudanese exports have been resuming slowly even as Yemen’s Marib pipeline has been repaired. But it may not be time for rejoicing as both developments are reversible. Yemen’s pipeline could be attacked yet again by the militants (“the frequency of pipeline attacks in Yemen have not faded and risk remains for a relapse”); nature of relationship between North and South Sudan being volatile, the crude oil flows may not be as reliable.

Besides the domestic conflicts and geopolitical factors are not favorable in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria.

Grains

Rain and wet weather have been playing dampeners as delays surface in US spring plantings of corn and soybeans.

 

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Here are trading tips for copper, crude, zinc & nickel

24 May

Sugandha Sachdeva of Religare Commodities advocates selling MCX crude around Rs 5,265 per barrel levels. Sachdeva says, “Keep a stop loss for this trade at Rs 5,320 per barrel for downside target of Rs 5,090 per barrel”.

Renisha Chainani of Edelweiss advises selling copper on MCX around Rs 409-410 per kilogram with a stop loss at Rs 412 per kilogram and a target of Rs 405 per kilogram.

Sugandha Sachdeva of Religare Commodities advocates selling MCX crude around Rs 5,265 per barrel levels. Sachdeva says, “Keep a stop loss for this trade at Rs 5,320 per barrel for downside target of Rs 5,090 per barrel”.

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities suggests selling MCX zinc around Rs 103-104 per kilogram. Place a stop loss for this trade at Rs 105 per kilogram for target of Rs 100 per kilogram on the downside.

Ram Pitre of Anand Rathi Commodities recommends selling nickel on MCX around Rs 835-840 per kilogram. “Maintain a stop loss for this trade at Rs 850 per kilogram for a target of Rs 800-810 per kilogram”, Pitre adds.

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Trading tips for crude, silver & copper

20 May

Ram Pitre of Anand Rathi Commodities recommends selling crude between Rs 5,360 per barrel and Rs 5,370 per bbl with stop loss of Rs 5,400 per bbl for target price of Rs 5,250 per bbl.

Don’t see gold touching $1,100/oz by year-end: UBS

Renisha Chainani of Edelweiss advises selling silver at MCX around Rs 42,700 per kilogram with stop loss of Rs 43,100 per kilogram for target of Rs 42,000 per kilogram on the lower side.

Sugandha Sachdeva of Religare Commodities advocates buying natural gas. “We would recommend buy on dips close to Rs 221 per kilogram to Rs 222 per kilogram with stop loss of Rs 217 per kilogram and prices are likely to show an upside up to a level of Rs 228 to Rs 232 per kilogram,” Sachdeva adds.

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities suggests selling copper at Rs 405 per kilogram maintaining a stop loss of Rs 409 per kilogram and hold short for major support of Rs 395-391 per kilogram on downside.

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Trading tips for gold, copper, natural gas & aluminum

9 May

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities suggests buying MCX gold around Rs 26,800 per 10gm. Place a stop loss for this trade at Rs 26, 700 per 10gm for target of Rs 27,200-27,350 per 10gm.

Renisha Chainani of Edelweiss advises selling MCX copper around Rs 398-399 per kilogram with a stop loss at Rs 401 per kilogram and a target of Rs 393-395 per kilogram.

Ravindra Rao of Motilal Oswal recommends selling natural gas on MCX around Rs 216-218 per kilogram. “Maintain a stop loss for this trade at Rs 224 per kilogram for a target of Rs 204-205 per kilogram”,Rao adds.

Sumeet Bagadia of Destimoney Commodities advocates buying MCX aluminum on dips to Rs 102 per kilogram levels. Bagadia says, “Keep a stop loss for this trade at Rs 101 per kilogram for a target of Rs 103.50105 per kilogram”.

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Copper demand indicators for China turning positive: Barclays

4 May

High frequency end-demand indicators have started to pick up, the SHFE/LME import price arb has opened, SHFE stocks and bonded stocks have been falling, physical import premiums have been rising, and time spreads on the SHFE have gone into backwardation.

LONDON (Commodity Online): Whilst Barclays agrees that the demand environment remains soft for copper, there are signs that it is improving. All the usual copper demand indicators for China have been turning positive.

High frequency end-demand indicators have started to pick up, the SHFE/LME import price arb has opened, SHFE stocks and bonded stocks have been falling, physical import premiums have been rising, and time spreads on the SHFE have gone into backwardation.

“In our view, the sell-off may look overdone, but any price recovery is likely to be mild and difficult to sustain. We continue to favour selling into short-covering rallies in Q2,” said Barclays.

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In a move that may bring some much needed supply discipline in the aluminium market Alcoa has announced that it is considering closing 460Kt of production (11% of its capacity) in the next 15 months.

The company is reviewing higher cost plants given the weakness in prices. Alcoa confirmed that it already idled 568Ktpy in Texas, Tennessee, Italy, and Spain in 2012. Whilst this is a move in the right direction towards addressing the global surplus, it will not change the immediate supply-demand balance until cuts to production begin.

Barclays continues to see the market in >1Mt surplus this year, the seventh year of surplus with cuts so far doing little to address that. In China cuts of up to 700Kt have been largely offset by increased production in cheaper locations in the country leading to a still strong increase in net supply.

Negotiations of labour contracts at Freeport McMoRan’s 535Ktpy Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia get under way this month and already workers at three of its contractors have gone on strike.

Machinery repairs services workers at PT Jasti Pravita, PT Osato Seike and PT Srikandi Mitra Karya went on strike after failing to reach an agreement on a pay increase.

Freeport stated that “The strike for sure can slow down [Freeport Indonesia’s] operations, but we don’t expect any direct impact on our mining and production,” (Dow Jones). The last labour negotiations and resulting strike was in 2011 and lasted into 2012 resulting in 100Kt of lost production at the mine. We have been highlighting this year’s negotiations as a risk to this year’s copper production.

Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/copper-demand-indicators-for-china-turning-positive-barclays-54268-3-54269.html