Tag Archives: gold updates

Gold inches up, headed for third weekly gain

26 Jul

Gold edged up on Friday and was headed for its third straight weekly gain, helped by a weaker dollar and hopes of a prolonged period of easy monetary policy.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold had climbed 0.07 percent to USD1,333.95 an ounce by 0014 GMT, after gaining about 1 percent in the previous session.

* US data showed that new claims for jobless benefits edged higher last week, but remained within a range that suggests the labour market’s recovery is on track.

* Investors fear that strong US economic numbers would prompt the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus measures sooner rather than later.

* China’s gold demand could hit a record 1,000 tonnes this year, the World Gold Council said on Thursday, which means it would overtake India as the world’s biggest bullion consumer.

* Gold premiums in India jumped to USD 20 an ounce over London spot prices on Thursday due to short supplies even as traders, looking to stock up for festivals, waited for prices to fall further from their highest level in more than a month.

* Gold mining companies are expected to cut their gold hedging position by 20 tonnes on a net basis in 2013 even though the price of bullion has fallen sharply, precious metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS said on Thursday.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.26 percent to 927.36 tonnes on Thursday.

* Goldcorp Inc , the world’s largest gold miner by market capitalisation, posted weaker-than-expected second quarter results on Thursday, hit by a sharp drop in the gold price and a USD 2 billion non-cash impairment charge.

MARKET NEWS

* The dollar languished at one-month lows against a basket of major currencies on Friday, having suffered a setback overnight as investors turned cautious ahead of next week’s Fed policy meeting.

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Gold Eases After 4 Days of Gains as Dollar Firms

24 Jul

Gold slipped on Wednesday after hitting a fresh one-month high the session before as the dollar climbed off lows and investors took profits after four days of gains.

Fundamentals

* Spot gold had dropped 0.3 percent to USD 1,343.56 an ounce by 0022 GMT, after rising to a one-month peak on Tuesday as speculators bought back bearish bets ahead of an option expiry later this week.

* Comex gold gained USD 9 to USD 1,343.40, while silver and platinum tracked gold lower.

* Spot gold has gained over USD 160 an ounce from a three-year low hit in late June after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US central bank would only start phasing out its stimulus when it was sure the economy was strong enough to stand on its own.

* World stock markets rose to near five-year highs on Tuesday, boosted by views that China was moving to support its cooling economy, while the dollar fell to one-month lows.

* The markets is waiting for the latest reading on China’s manufacturing activity due at 0145 GMT for signs of economic growth in the world’s second-biggest bullion consumer.

* Wall Street’s multibillion-dollar commodity trading operations came under the political spotlight on Tuesday as a powerful US Senate committee questioned whether commercial banks should control oil pipelines, power plants and metals warehouses.

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Read more: http://bizcovering.com/investing/gold-eases-after-four-days-of-gains-as-dollar-firms/

Gold near one-month high as dollar slips

23 Jul

A weaker dollar supported bullion prices, but stricter Indian import rules and continued outflows from exchange-traded gold funds could cap gains

goldGold was trading near its highest in a month on Tuesday after gaining 3 percent the session before and breaking through key resistance at the USD 1,300 level.

A weaker dollar supported bullion prices, but stricter Indian import rules and continued outflows from exchange-traded gold funds could cap gains.

 FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was down 0.08 percent at USD 1,334.01 an ounce by 0020 GMT, while US gold fell USD 2.50 to USD 1,333.50.

* Gold hit a one-month high of USD 1,338.91 on Monday, as speculators fearing a reversal of the recent downward price trend rushed to buy back bearish bets.

* Bullion prices have garnered support from Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke’s assurance last week that the US central bank would be careful in scaling back its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases.

* September is still the most likely time for the Fed to announce that it will trim its monthly bond purchases, according to a Reuters poll taken after Bernanke’s congressional testimony last week.

* Analysts have slashed their 2013 gold and silver price forecasts after sharp falls earlier this year and expect them to remain weak in 2014 as the United States reins in monetary stimulus, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

* India’s central bank moved to tighten gold imports again on Monday, making them dependent on export volumes with an eye to reducing a record current account deficit, but offered relief to domestic sellers by lifting restrictions on credit deals.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.13 percent to 931.26 tonnes on Monday.

* A group of indigenous Chileans asked the Supreme Court to revoke the environmental license of Barrick Gold Corp’.

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Gold rises to 1-month high on weaker US dollar

22 Jul

Gold hit a high of USD 1,314.49 an ounce, its highest since June 20, and stood at USD 1,312.24 by 0024 GMT, up USD 16.50

mcx goldGold jumped more than 1 percent to its highest level in a month on Monday as the US dollar slipped against other currencies, with gains in Japanese bullion futures adding extra support.

Gold hit a high of USD 1,314.49 an ounce, its highest since June 20, and stood at USD 1,312.24 by 0024 GMT, up USD 16.50. Gold last week posted its second weekly gain after the Federal Reserve’s assurance the timing of any tapering in economic stimulus is not set in stone.

US gold rose 1.49 percent to USD 1,312.10 an ounce. The most active June 2014 gold contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange rose as high as 4,243 yen a gramme, its highest since June 20, because of a weaker yen.

Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish bets in gold and silver futures and options in the week to July 16, while they trimmed net shorts in copper, a report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

China’s central bank removed controls on bank lending rates, effective Saturday, in a long-awaited move that signals the new leadership’s determination to carry out market-oriented reforms.

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.29 percent to 932.46 tonnes on Friday from 935.17 tonnes on Thursday.

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Cheap Gold and Silver prices – the deal of a lifetime?

20 Jul

Eerily, perhaps the worst precious metals market sentiment currently exists that has been observed since the early 1970’s.

mcx gold silverThe gold and silver markets have fallen dramatically in the wake of the FOMC signaling an end to its controversial Quantitative Easing or QE programs. The pricing in of such FedspeakQE taper-talk has also triggered a yield spike in southern Europe that could deepen that region’s existing debt crisis.

Furthermore, sharply rising interest rates have resulted as billions of investors exit perhaps the largest financial bubble ever seen. The end of cheap real estate refinance has finally arrived as mortgage rates are now approaching five percent.

Rising government bond rates mean more money that will increase the chances of stealth inflation. The Fed acting to crush the effects of inflation may even lead to more money printing.

Other background factors

In addition, rising oil prices have been cutting in to already lofty equity valuations, as fallout from the “Black Swan” in the Gulf of Mexico expands. Gasoline prices are already rising.

The public has also been caught largely off guard by embroiling social unrest in various parts of the world. This dissatisfaction is indirectly the result of exporting inflation that is collateral damage from currency depreciation wars.

A dead precious metals mining sector has been cutting off any “perceptual” idea of supply as paper metal prices are now well below the cost of production. New supply matters little for gold. For silver, by the time the sector catches up with demand, there will be no silver left.

Precious metal prices suffer despite bullish fundamentals

Offset by an unprecedented and record breaking surge in physical demand for silver, from silver coins to international demand. Yet, eerily, perhaps the worst precious metals market sentiment currently exists that has been observed since the early 1970’s.

Bullion banks are currently long buyers by every indication, yet they are still maintaining a concentrated short position in the futures market. This could be an intentional effort to suppress physical metal prices by selling paper so that they can accumulate real metal more cheaply.

In short, it is unfathomable how low the precious metals markets are by any measure. Technically, the market could still go lower, but does this change the likelihood that investors have now been presented with what seems to be the precious metal buying opportunity of perhaps multiple lifetimes?

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History Shows Gold Could Fall Another $500/oz

16 Jul

A slowdown in growth in China, as evidenced in data released on Monday which showed that growth had slowed to 7.5 percent, was one potential indicator of lower gold demand.

gold updatesThe price of gold could fall below USD 800 an ounce over a long-term horizon, a drop of some USD 500 from its current level of USD 1,294 an ounce, Duke University’s Campbell Harvey told CNBC on Monday.

Harvey, who works at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, said that over 2,500 years of history, the real price of gold (the nominal price adjusted for inflation) had remained roughly the same.

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“Right now we’re way above the mean,” Harvey said, suggesting that the price of gold would correct over the long-term to approximately USD 800 an ounce.

“If you look historically, it doesn’t just go down to the average and stay there. It actually goes through and falls below, then comes back up,” he said.

The price of gold could therefore potentially go even lower than USD 800, he said. “It has been lower in recent history.”

“It might not be tomorrow,” Campbell added, but “the cycles go in 10-15 years, and we’re well into one of these cycles.”

He said investors mulling the price of gold should focus on demand rather than supply, which he said was “amazingly constant”.

A slowdown in growth in China, as evidenced in data released on Monday which showed that growth had slowed to 7.5 percent, was one potential indicator of lower gold demand.

“China is a demander of gold, lower growth there means lower demand,” Campbell said.

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Gold Futures Poised to Rise Next Week: Survey

13 Jul

On the Comex, gold for delivery on August 13 was seen closing at $1,284.15/oz, a gain of $4.25 or 0.33% on Friday.The futures are closed for weekend. Silver on the Comex for delivery on September 13 closed Friday at $19.895/oz, registering a loss of $0.061 or 0.31%.

mcx gold

MUMBAI : If the survey results of Bloomberg are anything to go by, gold futures are poised to climb next week. Nineteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg think that gold futures may rise next week even as nine analysts were bearish and three neutral.

Gold as of last quarter has lost 23% y/y and witnessed acceleration in declines as US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that the Quantitative Easing measures announced by Fed would see a tapering starting second half of this year.

However, this week the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for June released has showed a bias towards continuing with QE measures. Ben Bernanke himself said that the monetary policy would remain accommodative for the foreseeable time as the revival in economy is fragile.

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This created a rally in futures as prices breached the $1280 mark, an area of significant resistance.

“With the Fed comments, with the increased cost of funding a short position and some recalibration in peoples’ thinking about the end of quantitative easing, the onus is really on the bears now,” said Ross Norman, chief executive officer of Sharps Pixley Ltd to Bloomberg.

“Physical demand is supporting the market very nicely,” he added.

On the Comex, gold for delivery on August 13 was seen closing at $1,284.15/oz, a gain of $4.25 or 0.33% on Friday.The futures are closed for weekend. Silver on the Comex for delivery on September 13 closed Friday at $19.895/oz, registering a loss of $0.061 or 0.31%.

Meanwhile, with the decline in prices, physical demand remained robust in China even as with import curbs in place, Indian merchants are seeking sales controls fearing a shortage.

In India H2, 2013 is marked by festivities like Diwali and Dhanteras, two Hindu festivals which would see enhanced gold buying.

“This is just a temporary measure, but if we don’t follow through with this, there may be a situation when jewellers don’t have any gold to sell. The government and the Reserve Bank of India have already restricted gold imports,” said Vikas Chudasama, director general, All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation to the Indian Express.

“This is a request from the federation to all our member jewellers as it will help bring down imports over the next few months and so ease pressure on the current account deficit (CAD),” he noted.

India recently hiked the import duty on gold to 8% and RBI too put in restrictions on import funding by banks. Indian Rupee has dipped substantially and to record lows even as widening CAD is giving sleepless nights to policy makers.

The gold curb measures ‘helped’ the gold imports by India to come down substantially as latest data say.

“Import of gold and silver is understood to have declined substantially to $2-2.5 billion in June, much below the $8.39 billion imported in May, and over $7 billion in April,” a senior government official said and was quoted recently by the Indian Express as saying.

June imports of Gold have dipped to a paltry 28 tons when compared to 162 tons in May. Data says that imports of gold to Gujarat, a major consuming centre, dipped to 3.73 tons in June against the 37.61 tons registered in May as per the air cargo complex data.

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