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Gold Extends Gains into Third Session, China Demand Aids

2 Jul

Gold inched up on Tuesday, stretching its gains into a third straight session as buyers in China continued to snap up deals after bullion’s plunge to a three-year low last week.

Prices were also helped by short covering that kicked in after gold logged its biggest ever three-month loss in the second quarter ended June on indications of an early wind down to the US Federal Reserve’s stimulus measures.

“We can see some stock loading in the market and physical buying in Shanghai,” said a trader in Hong Kong.

“However, fundamentals are still bearish and we will test the upside at USD 1,270.”

Spot gold rose 0.5 percent to USD 1,258.51 an ounce by 0318 GMT, while US gold rose about USD 2 to USD 1,257.9.

Shanghai futures rose for a second straight day after nine consecutive declines. They were trading at over USD 30 premiums to spot prices.

Bullion, typically seen as a hedge against inflation, has taken a beating since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the economy was recovering strongly enough for the central bank to begin tapering its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases in the next few months.

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Gold plunged 22 percent in the second quarter and is headed for a 25 percent drop this year, its biggest decline since 1981. It fell to USD 1,180.71 last week, its lowest since August 2010.

Spot gold is expected to end its current rebound at or below USD 1,273 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Physical demand has not come to the rescue of gold as it did in April when prices fell the most in 30 years.

In Hong Kong, gold bar premiums over London prices remained at the same levels as last week, indicating that demand has not picked up strongly, dealers said.

Mixed US economic data on Monday added to uncertainty over the exact timing of the Fed’s tapering.

US manufacturing expanded last month, rebounding from an unexpected contraction in May, and construction spending neared a four-year high in May. However, hiring in the manufacturing sector was the weakest in nearly four years.

A more important jobs report, the US nonfarm payrolls, is expected to be released on Friday.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.12 percent to 968.30 tonnes on Monday – its lowest since February 2009.

Commodity bets: Sell gold; buy silver & crude

28 Jun

Commodity experts are upbeat on silver and crude, they advise buying them. However, they are not bullish on gold, hence suggest selling it.

Priyank Upadhya of SSJ Finance and Securities suggests buying silver around Rs 39,000 per kilogram with stop loss below Rs 38,500 per kilogram and target around Rs 40,000-40,400 per kilogram.

Hitesh Jain of IIFL advocates selling MCX gold at Rs 25,500 per 10gm with target of Rs 25,000 per 10gm and stop loss of Rs 25,850 per 10gm.

Dipen Shah of Stayvan.com advises buying crude. “Any dips in prices around Rs 5,770 per barrel should be used for buying on MCX with strict stop loss of Rs 5,750 per bbl and expect Rs 5,820 to 5,840 per bbl on the higher side on MCX,” Shah adds.

Shreekanth Jha of PJ Commodity Ventures recommends selling gold at Rs 25,500 per 10gm for an immediate target of Rs 25,000 per 10gm.

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Trading tips for nickel, copper, crude & silver

28 May

Commodity-trading

Sumeet Bagadia of Destimoney Commodities recommends selling nickel. “Rise in prices till Rs 830 per kilogram in MCX should be used as selling opportunity with a stop loss to be placed at Rs 845 per kilogram on higher side for initial target of Rs 810 per kilogram and if prices are able to break and give close below Rs 810 per kilogram then further selloff can be seen till Rs 790 per kilogram in next two-three days,” Bagadia adds.

Priyank Upadhyay of SSJ Finance & Securities suggests buying silver around Rs 43,300 per kilogram with stop loss below Rs 42,700 per kilogram and target around Rs 44,000 per kilogram followed by Rs 44,500 per kilogram.

Hitesh Jain of IIFL advocates selling copper June contract around Rs 407.50 per kilogram with target of Rs 402 per kilogram and stop loss of Rs 411 per kilogram.

Sreekanth Jha of PJ Commodity Ventures advises selling crude at Rs 5,250 per barrel and look at covering at Rs 5,100 per barrel.

 

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Bullion, base metals under pressure, sell on rally: Emkay

23 May

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Ashok Mittal, CEO of Emkay Commodities shared outlook on commodities market.

Below is a verbatim transcript of the interview:

Q: How are you mapping commodities on a day like this when we have some poor Chinese data and generally the trend has been weakish?

A: The overall trend on the commodities market – whether it is bullion or base metals or energy products – remains quite under pressure.

On base metals, Chinese data is not very supportive and hence the outlook on the entire base metal pack, especially copper, looks little negative. We think that the prices will remain under pressure on the international markets as well as on the Indian market.

The only difference, which is applicable to all commodities whether bullions or base metals etc is the depreciation of rupee. While the international markets remain under pressure and we expect the prices to remain lower for most of the commodities – the fall in India on Indian rupee terms might be comparatively lesser because of the depreciation of the rupee. Whether it is gold, silver or base metals, the advise for investors is that they should look to sell on uptick.

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Q: Give us a word on what is happening with crude as well that is beginning to blink?

A: In crude, for a long-term perspective we had been saying that we expect the range to be between USD 80 per barrel to USD 100 per barrel. Inventory levels, which came yesterday, are quite good for gasoline as well as crude oil. The expectation in terms of demand increasing is comparatively much lesser.

We expect that crude prices will remain under pressure. In short-term, we expect them to go closer to USD 91-92 per barrel and we expect it should not go above USD 97 per barrel.

On Indian market, we are suggesting to sell crude somewhere around Rs 5,300-5,320 keeping USD 1 per barrel stop loss. We expect USD 2-3 per barrel downside. That means we might see levels of around Rs 5,200 per barrel or lower.

Another very interesting analysis that we have seen on the difference between Brent crude oil and Nymex crude oil is that gas, which used to be around USD 18-20 per barrel has shrunk to around USD 8 per barrel or so. So, we expect that while there will be a lot of pressure on the overall crude oil prices, Nymex crude oil will remain more under pressure because of the factor that the supply is more on that side whereas the Brent will remain not that much under pressure. So the gap between these two will increase further to USD 12-13 per barrel. So this will be a good trade for traders to do. They can buy Brent crude oil and sell Nymex crude oil.

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