Tag Archives: intraday tips

Oil Continues to Fall in Asia

25 Jul

Oil futures traded modestly lower during Thursday’s Asian session, extending losses incurred during U.S. traded Wednesday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for September delivery fell 0.29% to USD105.29 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday despite some encouraging U.S. real estate data.

In U.S. economic news out Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index climbed to 57 this month from 51 last month. The July reading reading is the highest since January 2006. Readings above 50 indicate builders view the market as good.

New home sales advanced 8.3%, the best rate in five years. The seasonally adjusted rate was 497,000 units. Economists expected 484,000. May’s sales rate was also revised up to 459,000.

Even solid weekly inventories could not help oil higher in Asian Thursday. On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels in the week ending July 19, exceeding expectations for a decline of 2.4 million barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 364.2 million barrels as of last week.

Traders appear to still be concerned about economic data out of China last night that serves as further proof manufacturing activity in the world’s second-largest economy is slowing. China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to an 11-month low of 47.7 in July, from a final reading of 48.2 last month. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 48.6.

The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consumers.

Elsewhere, Brent futures for September delivery fell 0.14% to USD106.91 per barrel.

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Gold Extends Gains into Third Session, China Demand Aids

2 Jul

Gold inched up on Tuesday, stretching its gains into a third straight session as buyers in China continued to snap up deals after bullion’s plunge to a three-year low last week.

Prices were also helped by short covering that kicked in after gold logged its biggest ever three-month loss in the second quarter ended June on indications of an early wind down to the US Federal Reserve’s stimulus measures.

“We can see some stock loading in the market and physical buying in Shanghai,” said a trader in Hong Kong.

“However, fundamentals are still bearish and we will test the upside at USD 1,270.”

Spot gold rose 0.5 percent to USD 1,258.51 an ounce by 0318 GMT, while US gold rose about USD 2 to USD 1,257.9.

Shanghai futures rose for a second straight day after nine consecutive declines. They were trading at over USD 30 premiums to spot prices.

Bullion, typically seen as a hedge against inflation, has taken a beating since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the economy was recovering strongly enough for the central bank to begin tapering its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases in the next few months.

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Gold plunged 22 percent in the second quarter and is headed for a 25 percent drop this year, its biggest decline since 1981. It fell to USD 1,180.71 last week, its lowest since August 2010.

Spot gold is expected to end its current rebound at or below USD 1,273 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Physical demand has not come to the rescue of gold as it did in April when prices fell the most in 30 years.

In Hong Kong, gold bar premiums over London prices remained at the same levels as last week, indicating that demand has not picked up strongly, dealers said.

Mixed US economic data on Monday added to uncertainty over the exact timing of the Fed’s tapering.

US manufacturing expanded last month, rebounding from an unexpected contraction in May, and construction spending neared a four-year high in May. However, hiring in the manufacturing sector was the weakest in nearly four years.

A more important jobs report, the US nonfarm payrolls, is expected to be released on Friday.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.12 percent to 968.30 tonnes on Monday – its lowest since February 2009.

Commodity bets: Sell gold; buy silver & crude

28 Jun

Commodity experts are upbeat on silver and crude, they advise buying them. However, they are not bullish on gold, hence suggest selling it.

Priyank Upadhya of SSJ Finance and Securities suggests buying silver around Rs 39,000 per kilogram with stop loss below Rs 38,500 per kilogram and target around Rs 40,000-40,400 per kilogram.

Hitesh Jain of IIFL advocates selling MCX gold at Rs 25,500 per 10gm with target of Rs 25,000 per 10gm and stop loss of Rs 25,850 per 10gm.

Dipen Shah of Stayvan.com advises buying crude. “Any dips in prices around Rs 5,770 per barrel should be used for buying on MCX with strict stop loss of Rs 5,750 per bbl and expect Rs 5,820 to 5,840 per bbl on the higher side on MCX,” Shah adds.

Shreekanth Jha of PJ Commodity Ventures recommends selling gold at Rs 25,500 per 10gm for an immediate target of Rs 25,000 per 10gm.

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Gold slips as India raises import duty

6 Jun

Gold edged to below USD 1,400 an ounce on Thursday as India, the world’s biggest bullion consumer, raised import duty on the metal by a third to reduce its current account deficit.

Fundamentals

Spot gold had dropped 0.25 percent to USD 1,399.36 an ounce by 0016 GMT, after gaining slightly on Wednesday as investors looked for safer assets after a private US jobs reading fell short of expectations.

US gold rose slightly to USD 1,399.10.

US private employers added 135,000 jobs in May, falling short of economists’ expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday, curbing fears the Federal Reserve would soon cut its monetary stimulus.

India increased import duty on gold by a third to eight percent as the government seeks to halt a surge in demand after gold imports hit 162 tonnes in May – twice the monthly average of 2011 when they reached a record.

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The increase in import duty comes a day after the Indian central bank acted to force domestic jewellers to buy only on a cash basis.

China’s gold imports unexpectedly tumbled in April from record levels on supply constraints as demand surged after global prices hit two-year lows, although a recovery is likely in May.

The appetite for US American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins is still at unprecedentedly high levels almost two months after a historic sell-off in gold unleashed years of pent-up demand from retail investors, the head of the US Mint said on Wednesday.

Commodity bets: Buy gold, sell silver & crude

15 May

Priyank Upadhyay of SSJ Finance & Securities suggests selling gold around Rs 26,800-26,850 per 10gm. Place a stop loss for this trade at Rs 27,000 per 10gm for a target of Rs 26,300-26,400 per 10gm.

Hitesh Jain of IIFL advocates selling natural gas around Rs 220 per kilogram. Jain says, “Keep a stop loss for this trade at Rs 224.30 per kilogram for a target of Rs 213 per kilogram”.

Dipen Shah of Stayvan.com recommends buying MCX silver on dips around Rs 44,200 per kilogram. “Maintain a stop loss for this trade at Rs 43,900 per kilogram for a target of Rs 45,200 per kilogram”, Shah adds.

Sreekanth Jha of PJ Commodity Ventures advises selling MCX crude around Rs 5,250 per barrel with a target of Rs 5,100-5,150 per barrel.

Priyank Upadhyay of SSJ Finance & Securities suggests selling gold around Rs 26,800-26,850 per 10gm. Place a stop loss for this trade at Rs 27,000 per 10gm for a target of Rs 26,300-26,400 per 10gm.

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Gold edges up as dollar eases; snaps 4-day decline

15 May

Gold had climbed 0.11 percent to USD 1,426.96 an ounce by 0014 GMT. It fell for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, its longest losing streak in over two months, as economic optimism and record high US equities dimmed its appeal as a so-called safe haven.

Gold inched up on Wednesday to snap four sessions of decline as the US dollar eased and selling by exchange-traded funds halted, but strong share prices looked set to cap gains.

Fundamentals

Gold had climbed 0.11 percent to USD 1,426.96 an ounce by 0014 GMT. It fell for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, its longest losing streak in over two months, as economic optimism and record high US equities dimmed its appeal as a so-called safe haven.

US gold for June rose 0.1 percent to USD 1,425.9.

Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York’s SPDR Gold Trust GLD and those of the largest silver-backed ETF, New York’s iShares Silver Trust SLV, remained unchanged on Monday from Friday.

Portugal will not replicate a deal that allowed Cyprus to sell its gold reserves under its bailout, its central bank said on Tuesday.

Platinum jewellery demand has grown in Europe as marketing efforts start to pay off, a leading UK jewellery producer said on Tuesday.

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Market news

The dollar edged lower in early Asian trade on Wednesday, but stayed close to its highest point against the yen in four and a half years on signs of an improving US economy and rising Treasury yields.

Japan’s Nikkei share index broke above 15,000 and hit fresh 5-1/2 year highs on Wednesday, bolstered by a strong performance from Wall Street.

Gold edges up on China demand; ETF holdings at 4 year low

8 May

Gold edged up on Wednesday, supported by demand from China and a tight physical market, but gains were capped by strong equities and a drop in bullion exchange-traded fund holdings to their lowest in four years .

China’s net gold imports from Hong Kong hit a record in March and the prospect of surging demand in the coming months may further support bullion prices, which have been hurt by continued ETF outflows after a historic price drop last month.

“There’s continuous liquidation on the ETFs which keeps gold under pressure. Sentiment is not that good,” said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

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Gold hit a low around $1,447 an ounce before bouncing to $1,454.21 by 0626 GMT, up $2.22.

Although gold started rising after China’s trade data showed a steady recovery in the world’s No.2 economy, dealers said the gains were due to bargain hunting and tight physical supply.

“Trading will be range bound,” said Leung, who expects bullion to move between $1,435 to $1,485.

U.S. gold was at $1,453.60 an ounce, up $4.80.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.42 percent to 1,057.79 tonnes on Tuesday. In terms of ounces, ETF holdings dropped to 34,008,852 ounces — the weakest since early 2009.

Cash gold has dropped more than 13 percent so far this year, after posting annual gains in the past 12 consecutive years as easy monetary policy prompted investors to buy bullion.

TIGHT PHYSICAL MARKET

The physical market remained tight given a recent surge in demand for gold bars, coins and nuggets after prices dropped to a more than two-year low in mid-April.

“There’s still a shortage in the physical metal, which is why premiums are at very high levels. We can say premiums for gold bars are at $3.50 an ounce,” said a dealer in Hong Kong.

The physical market in Singapore was less active on Tuesday, with consumers staying on the sidelines after a recent rush.

“Supply is indeed tight and I heard people in Hong Kong even quoted premiums at $4 to $4.50. Demand from Indonesia and Thailand has subsided, and in fact there’s some selling today from their side,” a dealer in Singapore said.

Gold also drew support from promising China data.

Net gold flows from Hong Kong to China, the world’s No. 2 gold consumer after India, jumped to 223.52 tonnes in March from 97.11 tonnes in February, smashing a previous record of 114.37 tonnes in December.

China also reported that its exports rose 14.7 percent in April from a year ago while imports grew 16.8 percent, easing some of the concerns about weakness in the recovery of its economy.

In other markets, Asian shares rose to their highest in nearly two years on Wednesday, as strong Chinese trade data added to positive sentiment already fed by record highs in global equities overnight.