Tag Archives: intraday trading

Gold rises to 1-month high on weaker US dollar

22 Jul

Gold hit a high of USD 1,314.49 an ounce, its highest since June 20, and stood at USD 1,312.24 by 0024 GMT, up USD 16.50

mcx goldGold jumped more than 1 percent to its highest level in a month on Monday as the US dollar slipped against other currencies, with gains in Japanese bullion futures adding extra support.

Gold hit a high of USD 1,314.49 an ounce, its highest since June 20, and stood at USD 1,312.24 by 0024 GMT, up USD 16.50. Gold last week posted its second weekly gain after the Federal Reserve’s assurance the timing of any tapering in economic stimulus is not set in stone.

US gold rose 1.49 percent to USD 1,312.10 an ounce. The most active June 2014 gold contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange rose as high as 4,243 yen a gramme, its highest since June 20, because of a weaker yen.

Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish bets in gold and silver futures and options in the week to July 16, while they trimmed net shorts in copper, a report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

China’s central bank removed controls on bank lending rates, effective Saturday, in a long-awaited move that signals the new leadership’s determination to carry out market-oriented reforms.

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.29 percent to 932.46 tonnes on Friday from 935.17 tonnes on Thursday.

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What will Greet Gold in H2, 2013: India Festival Demand or India Import Curbs?

8 Jul

While one cannot ascertain if gold imports by India would be met with added curbs, the Finance Ministry here is sure to lose sleep over the matter as festivities kick in and Rupee rout continues.

free gold trading tips

The second half of 2013 is marked by festivities in India and thereby enhanced gold demand. From Ramadan to Diwali to Dusserah to Dhanteras, Indians would go on a spiritual and materialistic binge bringing cheers to the markets and dating optimism.

But will that be the case this time around too as Current Account Deficit is still the Guerrilla in the room contributing substantially to Rupee weakness which has fallen to a record 60.22 against Dollar as of writing this. Will there be additional curbs on imports by India government?

A recent Reuters’ report quoting unidentified official suggests that this is unlikely as there are threats of enhanced smuggling activities in gold.

India recently hiked the import duty on gold to 8% and RBI too put in restrictions on import funding by banks.

These measures helped the gold imports by India to come down substantially as latest data say.

“Import of gold and silver is understood to have declined substantially to $2-2.5 billion in June, much below the $8.39 billion imported in May, and over $7 billion in April,” a senior government official said and was quoted by the Indian Express as saying.

June imports of Gold have dipped to a paltry 28 tons when compared to 162 tons in May. Data says that imports of gold to Gujarat, a major consuming centre, dipped to 3.73 tons in June against the 37.61 tons registered in May as per the air cargo complex data.

Trend seasonal

“The physical trend has always been very seasonal,” said Bernard Sin, the head of currency and metal trading at MKS (Switzerland) SA to Bloomberg on gold physical demand.

“Physical players are a different breed. They are always buying on the dip. Physical support will continue to be present and it will definitely trigger interest,” he added.

It has to be noted that while ETF demand has waned considerably, gold physical demand went up substantially in the past months.

While one cannot ascertain if gold imports by India would be met with added curbs, the Finance Ministry here is sure to lose sleep over the matter as festivities kick in and Rupee rout continues.

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Gold Extends Gains into Third Session, China Demand Aids

2 Jul

Gold inched up on Tuesday, stretching its gains into a third straight session as buyers in China continued to snap up deals after bullion’s plunge to a three-year low last week.

Prices were also helped by short covering that kicked in after gold logged its biggest ever three-month loss in the second quarter ended June on indications of an early wind down to the US Federal Reserve’s stimulus measures.

“We can see some stock loading in the market and physical buying in Shanghai,” said a trader in Hong Kong.

“However, fundamentals are still bearish and we will test the upside at USD 1,270.”

Spot gold rose 0.5 percent to USD 1,258.51 an ounce by 0318 GMT, while US gold rose about USD 2 to USD 1,257.9.

Shanghai futures rose for a second straight day after nine consecutive declines. They were trading at over USD 30 premiums to spot prices.

Bullion, typically seen as a hedge against inflation, has taken a beating since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the economy was recovering strongly enough for the central bank to begin tapering its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases in the next few months.

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Gold plunged 22 percent in the second quarter and is headed for a 25 percent drop this year, its biggest decline since 1981. It fell to USD 1,180.71 last week, its lowest since August 2010.

Spot gold is expected to end its current rebound at or below USD 1,273 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Physical demand has not come to the rescue of gold as it did in April when prices fell the most in 30 years.

In Hong Kong, gold bar premiums over London prices remained at the same levels as last week, indicating that demand has not picked up strongly, dealers said.

Mixed US economic data on Monday added to uncertainty over the exact timing of the Fed’s tapering.

US manufacturing expanded last month, rebounding from an unexpected contraction in May, and construction spending neared a four-year high in May. However, hiring in the manufacturing sector was the weakest in nearly four years.

A more important jobs report, the US nonfarm payrolls, is expected to be released on Friday.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.12 percent to 968.30 tonnes on Monday – its lowest since February 2009.

India mines miniscule 120 kg Gold in April 2013; yet proves Chidambaram wrong!

14 Jun

“India does not produce an ounce of gold. You pay in rupee, but the government has to spend dollars to buy gold,” Chidambaram said  yesterday.

India has produced 120 kilogram of gold in April this month in sharp contrast to its hundreds of tons in imports. This should also be read in the background of Indian Finance Minsiter’s yesterday’s statement on India’s production and consumption of gold.

“India does not produce an ounce of gold. You pay in rupee, but the government has to spend dollars to buy gold,” Chidambaram said. “I do not buy gold. To think that gold is the safest investment is wrong,” the finance minister said and was quoted by the Times of India as saying.

At least India does produce much more than an ounce of gold!

The index of mineral production of mining and quarrying sector in April 2013 was lower by 16.9% compared to that of the preceding month. The mineral sector has shown a negative growth of 3.1% during April 2013 as compared to that of the corresponding month of previous year.

The total value of mineral production (excluding atomic & minor minerals) in the country during April 2013 was Rs. 17772 crore. The contribution of coal was the highest at Rs. 5673 crore (32%). Next in the order of importance were: petroleum (crude) Rs. 5671 crore, iron ore Rs. 2712 crore, natural gas (utilized) Rs. 1883 crore, lignite Rs. 490 crore and limestone Rs. 382 crore. These six minerals together contributed about 95% of the total value of mineral production in April 2013.

Production level of important minerals in April 2013 were: coal 435 lakh tonnes, lignite 39 lakh tonnes, natural gas (utilized) 2942 million cu. m., petroleum (crude) 31 lakh tonnes, bauxite 2035 thousand tonnes, chromite 242 thousand tonnes, copper conc. 10 thousand tonnes, iron ore 119 lakh tonnes, lead conc. 16 thousand tonnes, manganese ore 194 thousand tonnes, zinc conc. 124 thousand tonnes, apatite & phosphorite 198 thousand tonnes, dolomite 520 thousand tonnes, limestone 242 lakh tonnes, magnesite 16 thousand tonnes and diamond 2928 carat.

In April 2013 the output of apatite & phosphorite increased by 33.6%, bauxite 14.7% and iron ore 1.3% percent. However the production of petroleum (crude) decreased by 3.7%, natural gas (utilized) 5.5%, limestone 5.9%, lead conc. 8.9%, gold 11.1%, dolomite 15.0%, manganese ore 18.1%, copper conc. 18.6%, magnesite 20.3%, zinc conc. 23.0%, lignite 27.9%, chromite 30.3%, coal 33.0% and diamond 33.6 percent.

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Gold Pares Losses, Holdings at Biggest ETF Edge Up

10 May

Gold edged higher on Friday as the euro steadied against the dollar, but was on track for its first weekly fall in three weeks after brightening job prospects in the United States hurt its appeal as an alternative investment.

A slight increase in SPDR Gold Trust’s exchange-traded holdings — the first since mid-March — offered a glimmer of hope for the metal, which has fallen 12 so far this year as investors switch funds into a rallying equity market.

Spot gold dipped to USD 1,452.84 an ounce before rebounding to USD 1,460.31, up USD 2.61. U.S. gold futures for June delivery hit a session low of USD 1,451.60 an ounce and stood at USD 1,459.60 by 0435 GMT, still down USD 9.00.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.26 percent to 1,054.18 tonnes on Thursday from 1051.47 tonnes on Wednesday, but are still near 4-year lows.

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Analysts said a pause in selling would support gold, but it was too early to call a halt to sales.

“If you look at total gold holdings, not only SPDR, they are still coming down. I won’t be so quick to say that sentiment is changing,” said Joyce Liu, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

“At least for now, physical buying can still provide some support. All hopes are now actually pinned on China. The demand in India is slowing because the Tritiya festival is coming soon and most traders have stocked up.”

India, the world’s biggest gold consumer, celebrates Akshaya Tritiya next week, the biggest gold-buying festival after Dhanteras. (Why buying gold this Akshaya Tritiya isn’t advised)

Premiums for gold bars in Singapore, which sells gold to India, slipped to USD 2.50 an ounce to spot London prices from USD 3 last week. But supply remained tight in Hong Kong due to strong demand from second-largest consumer China, keeping premiums at multi-month highs at USD 3.

“People in Hong Kong are still complaining about tight supply. It looks like at those retail shops, their stocks are swept out every day,” said a dealer in Singapore.

Gold sank to around USD 1,321 on April 16, the lowest in over two years, after worries about central bank sales and a drop below USD 1,500 led to a sell-off that stunned investors, prompting them to slash ETF holdings.

The price drop spurred a surge in physical buying in Asia and other parts of the world, which helped pluck prices from the lows. Chinese gold imports are expected to swell further after more than doubling to an all-time high in March.

“How long can China support the physical market? But I think it still can provide some support in the short to medium term. Technically, gold can test the USD 1,487 level again,” said Liu at Phillip Futures.

Japanese equities soared to a 5-1/2-year peak on Friday as the dollar’s break above the symbolic 100 yen level underpinned sentiment, while Asian shares fell as global equities took a breather from recent rallies overnight.

A falling yen lifted gold futures on Tokyo Commodity Exchange, with the most active contract, currently April 2014, rising to its highest since mid-April.

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Commodity bets: Buy gold & silver, sell crude

7 May

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities suggests buying MCX gold around Rs 26,900 per 10gm with a stop loss at Rs 26,800 per 10gm and a target of Rs 27,350-27,500 per 10gm.

Sumeet Bagadia of Destimoney Commodities advocates buying MCX zinc on dips around Rs 101 per kilogram levels. Bagadia says, “Keep a stop loss for this trade at Rs 99 per kilogram for a target of Rs 103-104.50 per kilogram”.

Shreekanth Jha of PJ Commodity Ventures advises selling MCX crude around Rs 5,250 per barrel with a stop loss above Rs 5,300 per barrel for a target of Rs 5,150 per barrel.

Renisha Chainani of Edelweiss recommends buying MCX silver with a stop loss at Rs 45,200 per kilogram and a target price of Rs 46,000 per kilogram.

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Here are trading tips for crude, nickel, copper & zinc

22 Apr

Renisha Chainani of Edelweiss recommends selling nickel on MCX at Rs 830 per kilogram. “Maintain a stop loss for this trade at Rs 845 per kilogram for a target of Rs 810-800 per kilogram”, Chainani adds.

Ram Pitre of Anand Rathi Commodities advises selling MCX crude at Rs 4,800-4,820 per barrel for a target of Rs 4,760-4,730 per barrel with a stop loss at Rs 4,850 per barrel.

Sumeet Bagadia of Destimoney Commodities advocates buying MCX zinc at Rs 99.50-100 per kilogram levels. Bagadia says, “Keep a stop loss for this trade at Rs 98 per kilogram for an initial target is of Rs 102.50 per kilogram followed by Rs 104 per kilogram”.

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities suggests selling MCX copper on rise up to Rs 379 per kilogram. Place a stop loss for this trade at Rs 383 per kilogram for a target of Rs 371-368 per kilogram.

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Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/commodities/heretrading-tips-for-crude-nickel-copperzinc_856523.html