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MCX Crude Oil bearish; support 5600 and 5580

22 Jun

For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 5600 while resistance is seen at 5630. If prices break the level of 5600 then prices are expected to move towards 5580. MCX crude oil futures for July delivery was seen trading down by 0.04% at Rs. 5612 per barrel as of 11.56 PM IST on Saturday.

MUMBAI: The trend in crude oil futures for July delivery on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) looks bearish for the day and traders are advised stay at sell side.

“For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 5600 while resistance is seen at 5630. If prices break the level of 5600 then prices are expected to move towards 5580,” said Amrita Mashar, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.

“Traders may take buy position near 5610 with the stop loss of 5630 for the target near 5580,” she added.

MCX crude oil futures for July delivery was seen trading down by 0.04% at Rs. 5612 per barrel as of 11.56 PM IST on Saturday.

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Last week, in the global market, crude oil prices fell to the lowest since September on higher than expected rise in US crude oil inventories, concerns over economic recovery in China and the United States and US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the Central Bank may end its monetary stimulus partially this year and potentially withdrew it by the middle of next year on the assumption that US economy is improving.

WTI crude oil futures for August delivery on NYMEX closed down by 1.32% at $ 93.89 per barrel on Friday.

Brent crude oil futures for August delivery on NYMEX closed down by 1.19% at $100.94 per barrel on Friday.

Brent hovers near 10-week high, Fed meeting in focus

18 Jun

Brent crude futures were barely changed around USD 105, holding not far off their strongest level in 10 weeks, as investors remained cautious ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting.

The Fed, whose two-day policy meeting starts on Tuesday, is under pressure to roll back some of the USD 85 billion in monthly bond purchases after advances in the US economy. Its three quantitative-easing schemes have buoyed prices of commodities.

At 0446 GMT, Brent was up 5 cents at USD 105.52 a barrel. It rose to 106.67 on Monday, the highest since April 4, on mounting tensions in the Middle East. US oil added 5 cents to USD 97.82 after hitting a nine-month high near USD 99 a barrel in the previous session.

“What I’m expecting is some indication of a slow, measured tapering of the bond-purchase programme by the Fed. It will cause some impact to markets at the start but I’m looking for minimal slippage at least for oil prices,” said Carl Larry, president of Houston-based Oil Outlooks and Opinions.

“In general any decision to taper would signal confidence in the ongoing recovery of the US economy, that is potentially an upside for markets depending on how investors take it.”

Global financial markets have been on edge since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the central bank would be looking to taper its stimulus if the economy showed signs of improvement.

The oil market is also keeping an eye on a standoff over the civil war in Syria as world leaders lined up to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into toning down his support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on the second day of a G8 summit.

Although Syria is not key to global oil supply, investors are worried the civil war there could affect other countries in the Middle East and plunge the whole region into conflict

Any run-up on geopolitical risk would soon bump into a fundamental situation of ample supply and uncertain demand.

Stung by recent victories for Assad’s forces and their support from Hezbollah guerrillas, the United States said last week it would step up military aid to the rebels, including automatic weapons, light mortars and rocket-propelled grenades.

“The market has certainly built in a risk premium into prices, and this should keep it supported despite fundamentals suggesting that there is more than enough oil out there to buffer a disruption to any kind of supply from the region,” said Larry of Oil Outlooks and Opinions.

“But until we see some clear consensus between the likes of Russia and the US we shouldn’t expect to see an end in sight in Syria and that keeps the risk of the conflict spilling over and drawing in other regional entities much higher.”

US commercial crude oil stocks are expected to fall due to lower imports, according to a preliminary Reuters poll done on Monday.

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