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Gold Futures Continue Higher after Strong Week

15 Jul

mcx gold trading

Gold futures built on last week’s new found momentum to traded higher in the early part of Monday’s Asian session as traders continued to nibble at the yellow metal amid still deeply discounted prices.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery rose 0.86% to USD1,288.55 per troy ounce in Asian trading Monday after settling up 0.3% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,284.15 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,237.05 a troy ounce, the low from July 8 and resistance at USD1,301.75, the high from June 21. Last week, gold prices rallied 4.9%, the biggest weekly gain since October 2011.

In U.S. economic news published last Friday, a Labor Department report showed U.S. wholesale prices rose 0.8% last month, the biggest gain since September 2012. That follows a 0.5% increase in May. Economists expected a June increase of 0.5%.

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The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to 83.9 in July from 84.1 in June. Economists expected an initial July reading of 84.7.

Gold traders finally got some good news last week when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in remarks delivered Wednesday, implied a possible tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing program is not as imminent as previously believed. That sent the U.S. dollar sliding and dollar-denominated commodities such as gold soaring.

Bernanke said last month the central bank could begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects.

Elsewhere, Comex silver for September delivery jumped 0.90% to USD19.970 per ounce while copper for September deliver dropped 0.51% to USD3.138 an ounce.

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Hours before the Minutes, Gold flat

10 Jul

Perpetual gold bulls liken Ben Bernanke, the US Federal Reserve Chairman, to one who delivered the bull market in gold with one hand and grabbed it back with the other; 2011 had seen gold futures rallying all the way to $1900 levels on QE steroids only to dip below the $1200 levels very recently.

Gold updates

Past two days had seen a slight uptrend in gold, marked by buying at lower levels and some short covering. However, hours before US Federal Reserve is about to come out with the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meet, which held in June, the futures are trading flat.

FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled to be released by 11.30 PM IST. This would be followed by a speech of Ben Bernanke sometime around 1.40 AM IST, Thursday.

Gold on the Globex platform of Comex for delivery on August 13 was seen trading at $1,245.05/oz, a loss of $0.85 or 0.07% as of 11.04 AM IST. Gold on India’s MCX for delivery on August 05 was seen trading at Rs.26008, almost flat.

It looks to be a wait-and-watch mode as far as gold investors are concerned.

Perpetual gold bulls liken Ben Bernanke, the US Federal Reserve Chairman, to one who delivered the bull market in gold with one hand and grabbed it back with the other; 2011 had seen gold futures rallying all the way to $1900 levels on QE steroids only to dip below the $1200 levels very recently.

The QE measures or Quantitative Easing measures—bond buying by Federal Reserve—had made gold rally to insane levels, and when June 2013 saw Bernanke announcing tapering of the measures provided the job market recovers, sent gold to a nadir.

It is the FOMC that takes a collective decision on whether or not to continue with the QE measures. It is worthwhile to note that positive job data that came in recently has taken the glitters off the eyes of QE advocates.

“The U.S. dollar is still rallying and Treasury yields are still trying to find a top. It’s still a pretty negative environment for gold.” said Victor Thianpiriya, an analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore to Bloomberg News.

Besides, the rout in the currencies of emerging markets has added to Dollar strength.

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MCX Gold, MCX Silver to witness short covering this week; MCX Crude Oil, MCX Copper bearish

1 Jul

Gold and silver on India’s Multi Commodities Exchange crashed to lower levels last week. Crude oil gained on high demand from investors while copper was still on the verge of a downfall.MCX Gold, MCX Silver, MCX Crude Oil, MCX Copper

Algorithmic trading with mechanical sell positions promoted steep fall in gold and silver prices. Persisting slow down in Chinese economy and sad state of affairs in European economy ensured the commodities remained in bearish zone. High demand from importers kept crude oil in positive territory.

MCX gold for August delivery may trade sideways to down this week. Short covering is expected at lower levels. Support: 24800, 24000; Resistance: 26300, 27100

MCX Gold traded in the range of 24830-27000 last week. The commodity remained in bearish territory as U.S gold crashed to $1183 per oz.

Release on U.S Nonfarm pay rolls, Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance and Spending may put pressure on gold prices in the global markets.

MCX silver for September delivery may trade bearish this week. Sell on rise is advised to the traders. Support: 39000, 38000; Resistance: 41700, 41999

Last week, MCX silver traded in the range of 38536-41334. The commodity crashed tracking gold prices. COMEX silver also witnessed a bear rally to lower levels.

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Chinese HSBC Services PMI and Euro zone retail sales data is likely to announce this week. Worries over Chinese economy may put pressure on silver prices.

MCX crude oil for July delivery may trade with negative bias this week. Support: 5550, 5310; Resistance: 5850, 5890

MCX crude oil traded in the range of 5570-5867 last week. Depreciation of Indian Rupee to 60.5 levels against dollar capped further fall in crude oil prices.

American Petroleum Institute release on US crude oil and gasoline inventories are scheduled for Wednesday. Weakness in Dollar Index may impact crude oil prices further.

MCX copper for June delivery is expected to trade sideways this week. Support: 398, 389; Resistance: 418,420

MCX copper traded in the range of 406-413 last week. The commodity witnessed low volatility on Chinese outlook.

Indian HSBC Services PMI and U.K Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data are scheduled for the week. Short recovery is expected for copper around 394-392 range.

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Trading tips for gold, copper, natural gas & aluminum

9 May

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities suggests buying MCX gold around Rs 26,800 per 10gm. Place a stop loss for this trade at Rs 26, 700 per 10gm for target of Rs 27,200-27,350 per 10gm.

Renisha Chainani of Edelweiss advises selling MCX copper around Rs 398-399 per kilogram with a stop loss at Rs 401 per kilogram and a target of Rs 393-395 per kilogram.

Ravindra Rao of Motilal Oswal recommends selling natural gas on MCX around Rs 216-218 per kilogram. “Maintain a stop loss for this trade at Rs 224 per kilogram for a target of Rs 204-205 per kilogram”,Rao adds.

Sumeet Bagadia of Destimoney Commodities advocates buying MCX aluminum on dips to Rs 102 per kilogram levels. Bagadia says, “Keep a stop loss for this trade at Rs 101 per kilogram for a target of Rs 103.50105 per kilogram”.

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