Tag Archives: mcx gold updates

Investors Flee Gold as Long Positions Hunker Their 2002 low

17 Jul

Although gold is perched near its highest levels in nearly three weeks, investors remain wary of buying it. BofA analysts note that market players have largely liquidated their bullish bets on gold: at USD 2.1 billion, bullion long positions are hunkered at their lowest levels since 2002, the bank said.

mcx gold tradingGold has fallen out of favor with large speculators, according to data from Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, with positioning sliding to its lowest spot in nearly a decade.

Although gold is perched near its highest levels in nearly three weeks, investors remain wary of buying it. BofA analysts note that market players have largely liquidated their bullish bets on gold: at USD 2.1 billion, bullion long positions are hunkered at their lowest levels since 2002, the bank said.

Meanwhile, “speculative shorts in gold are their largest ever,” BofA added.

Despite global central banks’ having no intention of removing their collective foot from the monetary throttle anytime soon, gold bulls have been chastened by a dizzying selloff that has shaved more than 25 percent from bullion’s value in 2013.

Hedge fund guru John Paulson’s flagship gold fund has plummeted by more than 65 percent this year, according to reports.

Over the last week, gold has staged a modest rebound. Still, it is far from the heady days of 2011, when the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy prompted gold bugs to bid bullion up to a record USD 1,900 an ounce.

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BofA called market signals on gold “extreme” and said that positioning “remains in the contrarian buy zone,” given that the metal has broken above a near-term resistance area at USD 1,270 an ounce. That creates a “near-term base and positioning-led squeeze higher,” the bank added.

—By CNBC’s Javier E. David

Gold prices update: Gold rates in Indian metro cities

24 Jun

At 13:09 hours IST MCX GOLD August contract was trading at Rs 26687 per 10 gram, down Rs 333, or 1.23 percent. The GOLD rate touched an intraday high of Rs 27000 and an intraday low of Rs 26650. So far 16507 contracts have been traded. GOLD prices have moved down Rs 5540, or 17.19 percent in the August series so far.

MCX GOLD October contract was trading at Rs 26824 down Rs 338, or 1.24 percent. The GOLD rate touched an intraday high of Rs 27131 and an intraday low of Rs 26801. So far 487 contracts have been traded. GOLD prices have moved down Rs 5026, or 15.78 percent in the October series so far.

In Chennai, prices of gold 995 and gold 999 fell by Rs 200 each to Rs 27350 and Rs 27460 per 10 gram on Monday.

In Ahmedabad market, the rate of gold 995 declined by 280 to Rs 26,990 and gold 999 slipped by Rs 275 to 27,120 per 10 gram.

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Gold tumbles again, could see worst week in 30 years

21 Jun

Gold fell to a three-year low on Friday and was in danger of recording its biggest weekly drop in 30 years after the US Federal Reserve said it would wind down its bullion-friendly stimulus later this year.

Spot gold – down nearly 9 percent this week – dropped for the fifth straight session, while Comex gold futures also declined over 1 percent to their lowest in three years.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the central bank would taper its USD 85 billion monthly bond buying programme as the US economy was recovering strongly, ending purchases around mid-2014 if economic growth held up.

“What the market is undergoing now is a state of normalisation, going back to pre-stimulus times,” said Joyce Liu, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

“Since the first stimulus programme in 2009, markets have jumped despite fundamentals not justifying such a spike.”

Gold was also hurt by CME Group Inc’s move to raise initial margins for Comex gold after prices plunged over 6 percent on Thursday.

The exchange operator raised Comex 100 Gold Futures initial margins for speculators by 25 percent to USD 8,800 per contract from USD 7,040.

“That is definitely affecting gold too. For those who cannot put out margin calls on time, they will be squeezed out even when they don’t want to get out,” said Liu.

Until recently, gold – seen as a hedge against inflation – had gained as the global economy took a hit and central banks acted to boost their economies. Gold touched an all-time high of USD 1,920.30 in 2011.

Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at USD 1,271.16 an ounce by 0121 GMT on Friday. The metal fell to USD 1,269.04 earlier – its lowest since September 2010 and a level which would mark the worst weekly decline in 30 years.

It has lost 24 percent of its value this year, after recording 12 years of gains.

Gold is on weak technical ground and will fall below USD 1,200 an ounce before finding support, technical analysts said.

UBS lowered its 2013 gold price outlook by 10 percent to USD 1,440 an ounce, and its 2014 forecast to USD 1,325 an ounce from USD 1,625.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.42 percent to 995.35 tonnes on Thursday – the lowest in more than four years.

But the drop in prices could see a spurt in physical demand in top consumers India and China, which have been quiet recently.

However, Liu said the demand would not be as strong as April when gold prices fell the most in 30 years over just two days.

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Gold down 1% as India extends bullion import ban

5 Jun

Gold fell about one percent on Tuesday to extend losses after the world’s largest bullion consumer India further restricted imports of the precious metal.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday extended the import restrictions placed on banks, which were introduced last month, to all nominated agencies and trading houses.

The move came after Monday’s data showed India’s gold imports jumped to around 162 tonnes in May from 142.5 tonnes in April.

“The news that the RBI will curb imports of gold by agencies has weighed prices down today as it is a wider restriction and could imply lower imports of gold into the country,” Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said.

Bhar said that June imports could drop to between 50 and 100 tonnes with India at the end of the wedding and Hindu festival seasons. Both are traditionally major gold-buying events.

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Spot gold fell one percent to USD 1,397.34 an ounce by 2:54 pm EDT (1854 GMT).

On Monday, it gained nearly two percent after data showed U.S. manufacturing activity had slowed to the lowest level in nearly four years, weakening arguments for the Federal Reserve to slow its USD 85 billion monthly mortgage-bond buying.

The central bank said in May that it would scale back its easing sooner if economic indicators showed signs of continued strengthening.

An overall improvement in the US economy and the absence of any inflation in the near future could weigh on gold as interest rates begin to climb, analysts said.

“The potential for real rates to turn positive, which would incur a greater opportunity cost in owning gold, would thus be negative for bullion prices,” said James Steel, chief metals analyst at HSBC.

US economic data will remain in focus this week, as Friday’s non-farm payroll data for May will provide investors with more clues about how long the Fed might keep US stimulus measures in place.

US Comex gold futures for August delivery settled down USD 14.70 at USD 1,397.20 an ounce, with trading volume about 50 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged on Monday for the fourth day in a row following hefty outflows in the last three months.

Silver fell 1.2 percent to USD 22.43 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.3 percent to USD 1,489.24 an ounce and palladium lost 1.2 percent at USD 747.72 an ounce.

What would move Gold, Silver today

30 May

Two key data releases are awaited for the day and yes, it is from US. Both releases—US GDP QoQ and initial jobless claims—are scheduled for around 07.00 PM IST.

The US GDP is forecast to have grown by 2.5% in the first quarter of this year (January-March). If the reading turns out to be a positive surprise i.e. to the upside, it would strengthen US Dollar and thereby weaken bullion prices.

The other data release scheduled for the evening for 7.00 PM IST is US Initial Jobless Claims. The data measures the number of people who have applied for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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If the data released exceeds the forecast of 3,40,000 in numbers, then it would give a fillip to dollar and weaken the precious metals gold and silver.

Besides, the data would also be tracked by US Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) as the debate on whether or not to continue with QE measures rages on.

The FOMC, responsible for initiating Quantitative Easing measures that involves bond-buying to the tune of $85 billion a month, has tethered the termination of the program to job market recovery and healthy inflation.

Both gold and silver have been plagued by correction and are entrapped in a stalemate condition ever since news arrived that George Soros has liquidated his holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, world’s biggest ETF of gold. While physical demand of gold has picked up recently, it has failed to buoy prices beyond a point.

“Physical buyers have helped to limit declines but they have also become more price-sensitive and tend to stay on the sidelines near $1,400,” said Yang Shandan, a senior trader at Cinda Futures Co., in China to Bloomberg.

Total holdings in ETPs have dipped to the lowest level since June 2011, shrinking by 5.4 percent this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Barclays notes:

“Market sentiment remains negative towards gold with non-commercial Comex gold positions at their lowest since December 2008 and ETP outflows showing little sign of slowing down. Net redemptions have hit 94 tons in May thus far (as of Saturday), and once again negative interest is skewed towards the US listed products, with GLD down 58 tons and at its lowest since February 2009.

On a regional basis, US listed products have suffered the largest outflows of 341 tons for the year to date, followed by UK primary listed products at 48 tons and the Swiss listed products at 47 tons. Metal held in trust across the 55 physically backed products we track are now at their lowest since July 2011 with year-to-date outflows of 443 tons, almost the equivalent of the net inflows over the past two years (476 tons).”

Gold on the Comex for delivery on August 13 was seen trading at $1,394.25/oz, a gain of $2.45 or 0.18% as of 10.39 AM IST. Silver on the Comex for delivery on July 13 was seen trading at $22.433/oz, a loss of $0.020 or 0.09%.

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Gold rises on weaker dollar after three-day fall

14 May

Gold rose for the first time in four sessions on Tuesday, aided by a softer dollar, although persistent outflows from exchange-traded funds reflected investors’ waning interest in the safe-haven precious metal.

Gold has recovered about USD 120 since a sell-off in April dragged prices to two-year lows, but it is still well below last month’s peak of around $1,600 as gains in stocks markets lure investors into equities.

Gold hit a session high of USD 1,444.96 an ounce and stood at USD 1,442.54, up 0.9 percent, at 0139 GMT. It fell more than 1 percent to a session low around USD1,425 on Monday, near a two-week low hit on Friday, as stronger US retail sales data reduced its draw as a safe-haven.

“Stocks are currently looking more attractive for investors. Gold will continue in the downward trend. It might test USD 1,400,” said Brian Lan, managing director of GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd in Singapore.

“I don’t see any data that could possibly push gold prices up,” he said.

US gold futures for June delivery were at USD 1,441.70 an ounce, up 0.5 percent.

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The Nikkei share average extended gains into a third day on Tuesday as the weak-yen trend continued to lift exporters. The US dollar ticked lower against other currencies, pausing for breath after recent rallies.

A surprise rise in US retail sales in April supported views that the US economy remains resilient. The data supported the dollar’s recent strength, and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan upgraded their view on second-quarter US growth.

Holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, stood at 33.811 million ounces, just off their lowest level since March 2009.

India’s gold and silver imports jumped 138 percent in April as customers took advantage of lower prices, increasing pressure on the current account balance in the world’s top bullion importer.

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