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MCX Gold, MCX Silver to witness short covering this week; MCX Crude Oil, MCX Copper bearish

1 Jul

Gold and silver on India’s Multi Commodities Exchange crashed to lower levels last week. Crude oil gained on high demand from investors while copper was still on the verge of a downfall.MCX Gold, MCX Silver, MCX Crude Oil, MCX Copper

Algorithmic trading with mechanical sell positions promoted steep fall in gold and silver prices. Persisting slow down in Chinese economy and sad state of affairs in European economy ensured the commodities remained in bearish zone. High demand from importers kept crude oil in positive territory.

MCX gold for August delivery may trade sideways to down this week. Short covering is expected at lower levels. Support: 24800, 24000; Resistance: 26300, 27100

MCX Gold traded in the range of 24830-27000 last week. The commodity remained in bearish territory as U.S gold crashed to $1183 per oz.

Release on U.S Nonfarm pay rolls, Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance and Spending may put pressure on gold prices in the global markets.

MCX silver for September delivery may trade bearish this week. Sell on rise is advised to the traders. Support: 39000, 38000; Resistance: 41700, 41999

Last week, MCX silver traded in the range of 38536-41334. The commodity crashed tracking gold prices. COMEX silver also witnessed a bear rally to lower levels.

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Chinese HSBC Services PMI and Euro zone retail sales data is likely to announce this week. Worries over Chinese economy may put pressure on silver prices.

MCX crude oil for July delivery may trade with negative bias this week. Support: 5550, 5310; Resistance: 5850, 5890

MCX crude oil traded in the range of 5570-5867 last week. Depreciation of Indian Rupee to 60.5 levels against dollar capped further fall in crude oil prices.

American Petroleum Institute release on US crude oil and gasoline inventories are scheduled for Wednesday. Weakness in Dollar Index may impact crude oil prices further.

MCX copper for June delivery is expected to trade sideways this week. Support: 398, 389; Resistance: 418,420

MCX copper traded in the range of 406-413 last week. The commodity witnessed low volatility on Chinese outlook.

Indian HSBC Services PMI and U.K Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data are scheduled for the week. Short recovery is expected for copper around 394-392 range.

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India, China consumers expect gold price to rise: WGC

31 May

In May 2013, 45 per cent of Chinese and Indian consumers said that they had bought gold in the previous six months, the report said. The outlook for the remainder of 2013 is even more positive.

After a sharp fall in gold rate in April, consumers in India and China see an opportunity in the price moves, believing that over the next five years it will increase, World Gold Council (WGC) said here today.

“New WGC research shows that 82 per cent of Asians believe that the price of gold will increase, or will be stable in the next five years. Not surprisingly, demand has surged as consumers have seen an investment opportunity to buy significant amounts of gold,” WGC Chief Executive Officer Aram Shishmanian said in a report here.

In May 2013, 45 per cent of Chinese and Indian consumers said that they had bought gold in the previous six months, the report said. The outlook for the remainder of 2013 is even more positive.

“We anticipate record quarterly totals for the second quarter in India and China. Even if ETF outflows continue, it is quite likely that gold previously held in the ETFs will find its way to Asian consumers taking a long-term view on gold,” WGC said.

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Gold charts point to fresh trouble, eyes on $1100/oz

22 May

Gold’s recent slump could have much further to run, with a breach of its April low at USD 1,322 potentially setting up bigger losses towards levels not seen since mid-2010, chart analysts say.

Since posting its biggest two-day loss in 30 years last month, bullion has struggled to recover, and last week suffered its longest string of daily losses in four years.

With April’s low again looming, a breach could spark a significant move lower, according to analysts who study past price moves to determine the future direction of trade.

“If that gives way, it will attract fresh selling pressure. That impetus could see it break below USD 1,304 and down towards the USD 1,161 area,” UBS technical strategist Richard Adcock said.

“It’s a break of that point that would pressure longs further, triggering more selling pressure as we start to see long-term longs close down, and people initiating short positions again.”

Commerzbank neutralised its previously negative one-month forecast after the market staged a bounce of more than 2 percent on Monday, adding that more short-term gains may be seen.

But Commerzbank analyst Axel Rudolph said the overall picture remains negative as long as gold remains below resistance around USD 1,500-1,532.20.

“This is not over yet,” he said.

April’s prices slump came as a stock market rally prompted investors to switch out of gold investments such as bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, and as speculation grew that the Federal Reserve may rein in its gold-friendly monetary easing measures.

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It was exacerbated by a breach of one of gold’s most important chart levels, the USD 1,521 December 2011 low.

Prices rebounded as buyers of gold bars, coins and jewellery stepped in to take advantage of lower prices, but that petered out below $1,490 an ounce.

“The rally stopped just shy of $1,500 and didn’t break back above that $1,522 area,” said Gerry Celaya, a technical analyst at Redtower Research. “That’s pretty important from a trading point of view in terms of underlining the bearish sentiment.”

VULNERABILITY

Gold prices are now in bear market territory after falling more than 20 percent from their September 2011 record, and are down more than 18 percent on the year. If gold closes the year below $1,675, it will record its first yearly loss since 2000.

While April’s fall broke gold out of its sideways trend of the previous 18 months, it has not fully negated its longer-term uptrend, which took prices from $250 an ounce in 2001 to 2011’s record high at $1,920.30.

“The past 12-year (underlying) uptrend structure is probably still intact,” Cliff Green, of the independent Cliff Green Consultancy, told the Reuters Global Gold Forum this week.

“I have two major trend lines from that sort of timeframe – the first sits around $1,100. A break of that would set up a test of the flatter one in and around $800.”

Immediate support below $1,322 is seen in the $1,301-1,308 area, the location of 2011’s low and the 50 percent retracement of gold’s rally to 2011’s record high at $1,920.30 an ounce from its 2008 low.

But gold’s grind lower over recent months is an indicator of its vulnerability.

UBS’ Adcock said that on a monthly basis gold’s MACD (moving average divergence-convergence) indicator is now below its zero line for the first time since about December 2001, potentially reflecting a much more significant longer-term bearish trend.

“You could argue that the market is now trading in a bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows,” Adcock said.

“Couple that with the long-term monthly MACD level, and that is further evidence that the market is now trading in a bearish trend, that the longer term uptrend is ending, and that we are entering into a longer-term bearish theme.”

Commodity Source

Copper may reach above $7,500/t before re-stabilising shorts: Barclays

11 May

LONDON (Commodity Online): Copper prices may witness further upward movement as market positioning is still short with positive demand signals from China. The base metal prices may rise above $7,500 per ton before re-stabilising shorts, stated London based Barclays in its recent market report.

This week, across the base metals complex, short-covering dominated price dynamics. In the context of extreme CTA short positioning, a stronger-than-expected US employment report alongside a surge in German factory orders for March combined to act as catalysts to fuel the move in prices.

From a fundamental perspective, stock trends have been turning more positive. LME stocks have levelled out, SHFE and Chinese bonded stocks are falling.

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Other indicators of Chinese demand are also positive, physical premiums are high, SHFE time spreads are in backwardation, the import arb is still open and data on end-use activity in some sectors have continued to improve.

Interestingly, this rally has mainly been in copper, and to a lesser extent aluminium, reflecting the size of short positioning in those markets and also the more encouraging fundamental signals in the case of copper.

On the copper mine supply side, there were several developments of note over the past week.

–First, Rio Tinto stated that it expects final approvals from the Mongolian government to start shipments from its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in the next few weeks. This follows protracted negotiations between the two parties that had raised concerns about the project time line. The mine is expected to produce 70Kt this year before ramping up to close to 200Kt by 2015.

–The Collahuasi mine’s production in Chile is expected to recover this year to potentially as high as 400Kt as mine worker announced their negotiations.

–Finally, Barrick Gold and Antofagasta announced they have given up on their Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan.

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Source: Commodity Online

Commodity bets: Buy gold & silver, sell crude

7 May

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities suggests buying MCX gold around Rs 26,900 per 10gm with a stop loss at Rs 26,800 per 10gm and a target of Rs 27,350-27,500 per 10gm.

Sumeet Bagadia of Destimoney Commodities advocates buying MCX zinc on dips around Rs 101 per kilogram levels. Bagadia says, “Keep a stop loss for this trade at Rs 99 per kilogram for a target of Rs 103-104.50 per kilogram”.

Shreekanth Jha of PJ Commodity Ventures advises selling MCX crude around Rs 5,250 per barrel with a stop loss above Rs 5,300 per barrel for a target of Rs 5,150 per barrel.

Renisha Chainani of Edelweiss recommends buying MCX silver with a stop loss at Rs 45,200 per kilogram and a target price of Rs 46,000 per kilogram.

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Gold ticks lower as equities gain, ETFs plunge

7 May

Gold eased on Tuesday, losing its shine as an alternative investment after stock markets rallied on hopes for a steady US recovery, and as holdings on bullion exchange-traded funds slipped to their lowest in more than three years.

gold updates

Although physical buying has helped gold rebound from a 2-year low hit in April, daily outflows on ETFs reflect investors’ sagging interest in the metal, which has fallen more than 12 percent in 2013 after rising for each of the past 12 years.

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Gold eased USD 3.70 an ounce to USD 1,465.19 by 0451 GMT. It rose to a near three-week high of USD 1,487.80 on Friday on safe-haven buying spurred by a cut in interest rates by the European Central Bank and the Fed’s decision to stick to its stimulus programme.

“I think sentiment is quite mixed. Physical demand supports gold but you can see some liquidation in the market,” said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong.

“Gold in the medium-term is still a little bit bearish. You can see holdings on SPDR are still down about 3 to 4 tonnes every day.”

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.31 percent to 1062.30 tonnes on Monday — the lowest since August 2009. In terms of ounces, holdings fell to 34,153,901.

Gold plunged to around USD 1,321 on April 16, its lowest in more than two years, after a drop below USD 1,500 and fears of central bank sales led to a sell-off that stunned investors and prompted them to slash holdings of exchange-traded funds.

The price drop ignited a buying frenzy in Asia and other parts of the world, leading to a shortage of gold bars, coins and nuggets in Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo, and helping the metal stage a rebound.

But gold’s failure to revisit the psychological USD 1,500 level suggested that funds were still on the sidelines.

US gold for June delivery was at USD 1,464.90 an ounce, down USD 3.10.

“We expect the physical demand to support the market, but (that) could prove difficult to maintain in the face of rallying equity markets, ETF outflows and speculative financial shorts,” said ANZ in a report.

“Additionally, global inflation concerns that could support gold are benign. We expect to see a pick-up in prices through the second half of 2013, where gold should trade in the mid-high 1,500 an ounce area.”

ANZ, which cut commodity price forecasts on Tuesday, sees gold averaging at USD 1,573 in 2013 and USD 1,648 in 2014.

“However in the near term, the tide is moving out and gold is likely to drift lower before finding a base from which to recover,” it said.

Spot gold is expected to revisit its May 1 low of USD 1,439.74, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

In other markets, Asian shares were capped on Tuesday by caution over weak global growth data, but Japanese equities scaled a near five-year peak after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at a record high overnight.

Source: Moneycontrol

COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS FOR TODAY 11-APRIL

11 Apr

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today commodity tips
GOLD (05 JUNE) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1 : 30150
RES 2 : 29700
SUPP 1 : 28750
SUPP 2 : 29125STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

SILVER (04 MAY) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1 : 52800
RES 2 : 53250
SUPP 1 : 51120
SUPP 2 : 50400STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CRUDEOIL (19 APR.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1 : 5170
RES 2 : 5250
SUPP 1 : 5055
SUPP 2 : 5010STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

COPPER (30 APR.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1 : 416
RES 2 : 420
SUPP 1 : 408
SUPP 2 : 405STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

LEAD (30 APR.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1 : 115
RES 2 : 116.30
SUPP 1 : 110.40
SUPP 2 : 108STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

ZINC (30 APR.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1 : 104.80
RES 2 : 105.90
SUPP 1 : 101.20
SUPP 2 : 100.10STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

ALUMINUM (30 APR.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1 : 105
RES 2 : 106.30
SUPP 1 : 101.40
SUPP 2 : 100.60STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

 NICKEL (30 APR.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1 : 925
RES 2 : 915
SUPP 1 : 875
SUPP 2 : 844STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS