Tag Archives: silver updates

Silver prices rebound on MCX, July futures up 0.3%

27 Jun

Silver prices rebounded with marginal gains Thursday, after previous day’s sharp fall. It fell below Rs 40,000 per kg level in previous session.

At 11:33 hours IST, MCX SILVER July contract was trading at Rs 39681 up Rs 113, or 0.29 percent. The SILVER rate touched an intraday high of Rs 39863 and an intraday low of Rs 39501. So far 5717 contracts have been traded. SILVER prices have moved down Rs 25329, or 38.96 percent in the July series so far.

MCX SILVER September contract was trading at Rs 40042 up Rs 157, or 0.39 percent. The SILVER rate touched an intraday high of Rs 40224 and an intraday low of Rs 39884. So far 1521 contracts have been traded. SILVER prices have moved down Rs 17277, or 30.14 percent in the September series so far.

MCX SILVER December contract was trading at Rs 40939 up Rs 222, or 0.55 percent. The SILVER rate touched an intraday high of Rs 41041 and an intraday low of Rs 40900. So far 10 contracts have been traded. SILVER prices have moved down Rs 6230, or 13.21 percent in the December series so far.

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Gold charts point to fresh trouble, eyes on $1100/oz

22 May

Gold’s recent slump could have much further to run, with a breach of its April low at USD 1,322 potentially setting up bigger losses towards levels not seen since mid-2010, chart analysts say.

Since posting its biggest two-day loss in 30 years last month, bullion has struggled to recover, and last week suffered its longest string of daily losses in four years.

With April’s low again looming, a breach could spark a significant move lower, according to analysts who study past price moves to determine the future direction of trade.

“If that gives way, it will attract fresh selling pressure. That impetus could see it break below USD 1,304 and down towards the USD 1,161 area,” UBS technical strategist Richard Adcock said.

“It’s a break of that point that would pressure longs further, triggering more selling pressure as we start to see long-term longs close down, and people initiating short positions again.”

Commerzbank neutralised its previously negative one-month forecast after the market staged a bounce of more than 2 percent on Monday, adding that more short-term gains may be seen.

But Commerzbank analyst Axel Rudolph said the overall picture remains negative as long as gold remains below resistance around USD 1,500-1,532.20.

“This is not over yet,” he said.

April’s prices slump came as a stock market rally prompted investors to switch out of gold investments such as bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, and as speculation grew that the Federal Reserve may rein in its gold-friendly monetary easing measures.

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It was exacerbated by a breach of one of gold’s most important chart levels, the USD 1,521 December 2011 low.

Prices rebounded as buyers of gold bars, coins and jewellery stepped in to take advantage of lower prices, but that petered out below $1,490 an ounce.

“The rally stopped just shy of $1,500 and didn’t break back above that $1,522 area,” said Gerry Celaya, a technical analyst at Redtower Research. “That’s pretty important from a trading point of view in terms of underlining the bearish sentiment.”

VULNERABILITY

Gold prices are now in bear market territory after falling more than 20 percent from their September 2011 record, and are down more than 18 percent on the year. If gold closes the year below $1,675, it will record its first yearly loss since 2000.

While April’s fall broke gold out of its sideways trend of the previous 18 months, it has not fully negated its longer-term uptrend, which took prices from $250 an ounce in 2001 to 2011’s record high at $1,920.30.

“The past 12-year (underlying) uptrend structure is probably still intact,” Cliff Green, of the independent Cliff Green Consultancy, told the Reuters Global Gold Forum this week.

“I have two major trend lines from that sort of timeframe – the first sits around $1,100. A break of that would set up a test of the flatter one in and around $800.”

Immediate support below $1,322 is seen in the $1,301-1,308 area, the location of 2011’s low and the 50 percent retracement of gold’s rally to 2011’s record high at $1,920.30 an ounce from its 2008 low.

But gold’s grind lower over recent months is an indicator of its vulnerability.

UBS’ Adcock said that on a monthly basis gold’s MACD (moving average divergence-convergence) indicator is now below its zero line for the first time since about December 2001, potentially reflecting a much more significant longer-term bearish trend.

“You could argue that the market is now trading in a bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows,” Adcock said.

“Couple that with the long-term monthly MACD level, and that is further evidence that the market is now trading in a bearish trend, that the longer term uptrend is ending, and that we are entering into a longer-term bearish theme.”

Commodity Source

Silver shrinks to the lowest since 2010; follows Gold

20 May

Silver futures on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading down by 4.67% at $21.320 per troy ounce as of 10.10 AM IST on Monday.Speculation that US Federal Reserve may end its USD85 billion per month bond-buying program, might have influenced investors sentiments.

MUMBAI : Bullion futures in the international market are trading negative and silver prices fell to the lowest since 2010. Bullion prices shrunk to their lowest in four years as investment demand recorded a slump amid firm equities.

Silver futures on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading down by 4.67% at $21.320 per troy ounce as of 10.10 AM IST on Monday.

Comex gold futures are also down by 1.59% at $1343.05 per troy ounce as of 10.11 AM IST on Monday.

“Silver is trekking a similar path to gold,” Yang Xuejie, an analyst at Galaxy Futures Co., a unit of the brokerage controlled by China’s sovereign wealth fund said to Bloomberg.

“Investment demand is slowly falling and there are doubts about industrial demand, which is the primary driver.” he added.

Gold traders held 74,432 short contracts as of May 14, according to the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

Speculation that US Federal Reserve may end its USD85 billion per month bond-buying program, might have influenced investors sentiments.

Meanwhile, based on a simple regression analysis using data from 2003, Gold ETF outflows may cause downside risks of up to $75/oz in prices, Deutsche Bank has said in a report. If this turns out to be true, gold prices can touch $1282/oz from Friday levels of $1357/oz.

Deutsche Bank believes that the bulk of the drawdown in gold ETFs comes from institutional investors with, on Bank’s estimates, around two-thirds of the selling that is likely probably has already passed.

India bullion futures

Gold futures on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for June delivery was seen trading down by 1.39% at Rs.25477 per 10 grams as of 10.05 AM IST on Monday.

MCX silver futures for July delivery was also down by 4.09% at Rs.40885 per kilogram as of 10.05 AM IST on Monday.

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