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Investors Flee Gold as Long Positions Hunker Their 2002 low

17 Jul

Although gold is perched near its highest levels in nearly three weeks, investors remain wary of buying it. BofA analysts note that market players have largely liquidated their bullish bets on gold: at USD 2.1 billion, bullion long positions are hunkered at their lowest levels since 2002, the bank said.

mcx gold tradingGold has fallen out of favor with large speculators, according to data from Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, with positioning sliding to its lowest spot in nearly a decade.

Although gold is perched near its highest levels in nearly three weeks, investors remain wary of buying it. BofA analysts note that market players have largely liquidated their bullish bets on gold: at USD 2.1 billion, bullion long positions are hunkered at their lowest levels since 2002, the bank said.

Meanwhile, “speculative shorts in gold are their largest ever,” BofA added.

Despite global central banks’ having no intention of removing their collective foot from the monetary throttle anytime soon, gold bulls have been chastened by a dizzying selloff that has shaved more than 25 percent from bullion’s value in 2013.

Hedge fund guru John Paulson’s flagship gold fund has plummeted by more than 65 percent this year, according to reports.

Over the last week, gold has staged a modest rebound. Still, it is far from the heady days of 2011, when the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy prompted gold bugs to bid bullion up to a record USD 1,900 an ounce.

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BofA called market signals on gold “extreme” and said that positioning “remains in the contrarian buy zone,” given that the metal has broken above a near-term resistance area at USD 1,270 an ounce. That creates a “near-term base and positioning-led squeeze higher,” the bank added.

—By CNBC’s Javier E. David

Here are trading tips for crude, nickel, copper & zinc

22 Apr

Renisha Chainani of Edelweiss recommends selling nickel on MCX at Rs 830 per kilogram. “Maintain a stop loss for this trade at Rs 845 per kilogram for a target of Rs 810-800 per kilogram”, Chainani adds.

Ram Pitre of Anand Rathi Commodities advises selling MCX crude at Rs 4,800-4,820 per barrel for a target of Rs 4,760-4,730 per barrel with a stop loss at Rs 4,850 per barrel.

Sumeet Bagadia of Destimoney Commodities advocates buying MCX zinc at Rs 99.50-100 per kilogram levels. Bagadia says, “Keep a stop loss for this trade at Rs 98 per kilogram for an initial target is of Rs 102.50 per kilogram followed by Rs 104 per kilogram”.

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities suggests selling MCX copper on rise up to Rs 379 per kilogram. Place a stop loss for this trade at Rs 383 per kilogram for a target of Rs 371-368 per kilogram.

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Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/commodities/heretrading-tips-for-crude-nickel-copperzinc_856523.html

Oil Edges up Slightly in Second Straight Day of Gains

20 Apr

Brent crude oil prices closed below USD 100 a barrel on a second day of modest gains on Friday, after surpassing USD 100 earlier in the session and recovering some ground after a steep six-day decline.

Brent has fallen nearly 10 percent since the beginning of April, a decline that accelerated earlier this week after a cut in oil demand forecasts by global energy agencies and weak economic data from the United States and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers.

Friday marked the second day of gains for Brent after it closed at USD 97.69 on Wednesday, the lowest level since July 2012 and a price that analysts said was attractive to bargain hunters.

Analysts said the market seemed to be stabilizing after a week of heavy liquidation in which prices tumbled from over USD 103 as of last Friday, along with a rout in gold and industrial metals.

“Today’s gains looked like a follow-up to yesterday’s correction and one that could possibly be maintained for a couple more sessions,” Jim Ritterbusch, president at Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, wrote in a research note.

Brent crude settled up 52 cents a barrel at USD 99.65, down from an intraday high of USD 100.33. US crude gained 28 cents to settle at USD 88.01.

The May US crude contract expires Monday, April 22.

Most USD  stocks rose on Friday, taking the oil complex with them. USD  equities back a day after the S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time this year, with help from some blue-chip tech names.

“This remains a market very much driven by the equity markets. They’ve been rebounding and we’re just knocking along with that,” said Kyle Cooper, managing director of research at IAF Advisors in Houston, Texas.

“Crude inventories are at an all-time high, but we’re up today,” he added. “There are some people who want to believe it’s a physical market, but it’s not. It’s a financial market.”

Yet worries about global demand and oversupply persist, and market participants remained cautious as to whether the recovery had legs. Front-month oil prices have fallen more than 3 percent for the week.
“Oil prices were technically oversold so we are seeing some buyers coming in but they are not great volumes,” said Rob Montefusco, an oil broker at Sucden Financial in London. “There is nothing to suggest we can go up on a sustained basis – we were just overdone on the downside.”

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After spending the week below 30 on the relative strength index (RSI), a technical momentum indicator, Brent crude poked its head above 30 on Friday.

A reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold condition to chart-watching traders.

Data released during the week contributed to falling prices. Chinese first-quarter GDP growth was seen as disappointing, down at 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter. In the United States, the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, and factory activity in the nation’s mid-Atlantic region cooled in April.

Oil prices are down more than USD 10 a barrel from the start of this month. Brent touched its lowest level since July 2012 on Thursday at USD 96.75 a barrel after commodities took a hammering across the board earlier in the week.

Earlier in the week gold suffered its worst two-day fall in 30 years. Copper is still down below USD 7,000 a tonne, on course for its worst week since 2011.

But with the exception of industrial metals, the complex now appears to have stabilized. “There is a general feeling in the market that Brent won’t go much below USD 100 at this stage as a lot of speculative length has now been liquidated,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

The USD 100 level is seen as critical, because it is a budget breakeven point for OPEC members such as Iran, Iraq and Algeria.
“OPEC doesn’t want to see the price fall much below USD 100, and given that they continue to produce at very high levels, they can just turn the taps down a little bit, which would quickly change the balance in the market,” Hansen said.

Iran and Venezuela have already raised concerns about the price fall and said discussions had taken place over whether to call an emergency OPEC meeting before the group’s scheduled meeting at the end of May.

Source: moneycontrol

The scary number for gold investors: USD 1,200

16 Apr

Many gold producers will struggle to stay afloat if the gold price slumps below USD 1,200 analysts have told CNBC, potentially putting the gold mining industry at severe risk beyond 2017, according to Goldman Sachs predictions.

The much talked about decline in gold continued on Monday, with spot prices falling USD 1,400, compounding fears the 12-year run in the precious metal has finally come to an end.

Gold miners were especially hard hit, with a sell-off in the sector in Australia, China and the UK.

But at what point does the demise of the gold price make gold miners uninvestable?

“As you get closer to the cash cost production for gold, which is around USD 1,200 an ounce, people get nervous,” Jonathan Barratt, founder of Barratt’s Bulletin told CNBC.

James Sutton, client portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Natural Resources fund, agreed, telling CNBC: “The level where we think the gold mining industry will struggle is USD 1,200.”

While he said gold may not reach those levels, the fund was taking precautions, trimming its gold holdings to lows not seen since the financial crisis.

“Gold is now just over 20 percent in both the European and U.K. portfolios, which is a meaningful step change from where we were last summer when we had 31 percent, and it is the lowest weighting we have had in gold since the financial crisis,” he said.

As mine production makes up just 10 percent of the gold industry, people could still gain exposure to gold through many different avenues, but many businesses extracting gold from the ground could fold, he added.

“It is around about the USD 1,200 we think the gold industry as a whole struggles, but there are many companies that can still survive and be profitable,” said Sutton “If there was a further deterioration in the gold market, then our portfolio would become even more concentrated in those stocks that we thought were going to be the last men standing.”

Goldman Sachs, which downgraded its gold price target and advised investors to short the precious metal last week, said its long term price forecast from 2017 onward is USD1,200 and so recommended producers lock in current gold prices for 2013 and beyond.

“Over that horizon forecast, we expect US real rates to stabilize and see risks to US inflation as more symmetrical. And while higher inflation may be the catalyst for the next cycle in gold prices, this is likely to be several years away,” analysts led by Damien Courvalin said.

Gold Investors Battered

For investors in gold mining funds, 2013 has already been a very bad year.

Globally, gold mining and resource funds are down 10 percent on average in just the first quarter, before the latest falls,with the worst performing fund down 22 percent, according to investment research firm Morningstar.

In the UK, eight out of the ten worst performing funds in first quarter were gold and resources funds with an average loss of 12 percent, compared to the FTSE 100, which rose 9.29 percent over the same period, according to Morningstar.

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—By CNBC‘s Jenny Cosgrave: Follow her on Twitter @jenny_cosgrave

Sell MCX Gold June Fut at Rs 28040: Fortune Financial

15 Apr

Fortune Financial Services has come out with its report on metals, Crude Oil and Natural Gas. The research firm says one can sell MCX Gold June Futures at Rs 28040 with stoploss above Rs 28400 for the target of Rs 27800-27600.

MCX Gold June futures contract is looking weak on chart, day traders can sell on small pullback Major support is seen in range of 27730, 27534 and 27283. While important resistance is seen near 28176, 28428 and 28623. (Sell at 28040, target 27800-27600 SL above 28400)

MCX Silver May futures contract is looking weak on chart, day traders can sell on small pullback Major support is seen in range of 48559 , 48216 and 47776 . While important resistance is seen near 49341 , 49781 and 50124. (Sell at 49300 Target 48200 SL above 49800)

MCX Natural Gas April futures contract is looking strong on chart, day traders can buy on small dips Major support is seen in range of 229.48 , 227.86 and 225.78 . While important resistance is seen near 233.18, 235.3 and 236.9.  (Buy at 229-227 Target 238 SL below 224)

MCX Crude Oil April futures contract is looking weak on chart, day traders can sell on small pullback Major support is seen in range of 4940, 4905 and 4861. While important resistance is seen near 5020, 5065 and 5099. (Sell at 5000 Target 4900 SL above 5070)

MCX Copper April futures contract is looking weak on chart, day traders can sell on small pullback Major support is seen in range of 401.67, 398.84 and 395.20. While important resistance is seen near 408.14, 411.8 and 414.6. (Sell at 410-412 target 398 SL above 416)

MCX Lead April futures contract is looking weak on chart, day traders can sell on small pullback Major support is seen in range of 110.27, 109.50 and 108.50. While important resistance is seen near 112.05, 113.0 and 113.8. (Sell at 113-113.5 Target 110 SL above 116)

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Source: moneycontrol